Prepare for these Challenges
“No winter lasts forever; no spring skips its turn” – Hal Borland.
While this year has seen its fair share of challenges, there are several issues you need to pay attention as you continue preparing. In this blog, we will cover five things you should watch carefully over the next four months that finish this year. Prepping is about being informed and staying ahead of the curve on the survival side of the equation. Hopefully, being aware of these hurdles will keep you on that positive side.
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Food Prices
There are many moving parts to inflation, but the end results are all the same. At the end of the week, you have little to no money left in your wallet and hopefully gas in your car, a job, and food on your table. While several things are happening behind the scenes to keep people working and drive down fuel costs, you can expect food prices to continue to increase. There isn’t one singular cause for the higher prices. It is more like everything is going wrong all at once. Beef prices will continue to go up because feed prices have gone up, a mega-drought continues, and ranchers have downsized their herds. That lower inventory will drive prices higher through the remainder of the year. Whether those high costs will continue into 2023 will largely be determined by Cow-Calf operations calves born in the spring.
On the agricultural side, the high fertilizer cost, as we alerted everyone to well over a year ago, has lowered net farm income. Weather continues to be a challenge, and already many stories are circulating that warn us to have lower expectations for this year’s tomato, corn, soybean, and cotton harvests, to name just a few. Harvest yields are lower everywhere, and the transportation costs to bring that food to processing facilities, stores, and your table have also increased. This is a global problem that has been brewing for years. This year we saw dramatic price adjustments as fuel and fertilizer increased. Many countries have banned the exportation of some agricultural products to deal with this and the aggregating impact of war. A global readjustment that will continue through this year will leave some poorer, dependent countries on the precipice of famine and will result in shortages, scarcity, and hoarding activities in more affluent countries.
The reality of crop failures will be more apparent as the harvest season approaches September through November. Without the proper level of fertilizers and consistent watering, some crops cannot sufficiently harden themselves off against blight, insects, or extreme weather. Keep an ear out for any significant failures and watch your store shelves for dwindling selections or outright scarcity of products.
Utilities
America’s infrastructure is aging and showing an increase of failures at a time when Americans are increasingly having problems paying their utilities. There are three types of utility companies in the United States. 3/4 of all utility companies are Investor-owned utilities, which are large electric distributors that issue stock owned by shareholders. IOUs are most prevalent in heavily populated areas on the East and West coasts. At the end of the day, these companies intend to sell utilities to generate profits for shareholders. The other 1/4 of utility companies in the country are publicly owned utilities that residents have voted into existence, and cooperatives, which are not-for-profit member-owned utilities. If your utilities are part of the majority 3/4’s of Investor-owned and profit-driven, you are probably experiencing some rather massive rate hikes. You are probably also seeing more than a few articles about Americans falling behind on utilities. Look for some utility companies to shut down some people’s delinquent services before freezing temperatures set in, but fortunately, several state laws make it impossible for them to do so after freezing temperatures occur.
You may have used less energy this year than last, but you paid a budget-breaking amount this year. The reality is that to maintain profits when replacement and maintenance parts are suffering from supply chain challenges, when extreme wind, precipitation, and weather are challenging old equipment, when demand is soaring amidst heatwaves and droughts, and production is decreasing because of the higher costs of fossil fuels or dropping lake levels feeding hydro-electric dams, prices have to increase for consumers. The current utility services are decades old in some places and centuries old in others. From rolling blackouts or power outages like we saw in Texas to municipal water failings like we today see in Jackson, Mississippi, expect utility services to be less-reliable and to fail in some places as freezing temperatures descend and challenge mechanical infrastructure.
There will be even more significant supply challenges in Europe as Russia seeks to weaponize gas flow through Gazprom’s Nord Stream pipeline. Europe is more dependent upon Russian gas than anyone wants to let on, so there are already many new preppers in Europe buying everything from personal space heaters to generators to camp stoves. Expect that trend to continue and political pressures to increase as winter deepens and the Russo-Ukrainian conflict continues.
Elections & Civil Unrest
Here’s the understatement of the year for you: our political system is a hot mess. The political climate here and in many places worldwide is in a very precarious situation. The last presidential election ended with protests and people forcing entry into the capital. The repercussions of that election are still being felt today. In November, perhaps a more tectonic political shift will occur when 34 of the 100 seats in the Senate and every single one of the 435 representatives of the House are up for re-election. 85% of the state legislators are in an election year.
After some recent Supreme Court rulings and nationwide grassroots efforts to push agendas through candidates from local school boards to national campaigns, depending upon where you live and whom you talk to, your area could make a highly contested and challenged hard right or hard left in political leadership. I don’t think that even the expert politicos, pundits, or pollsters have an accurate forecast. We will leave the forecasting to them and quote Thomas Jefferson here “The government you elect is the government you deserve.”
We can say with near certainty that temperatures haven’t really cooled over this year, and the political tit-for-tat will only stoke the flames of our differences of opinion. The extreme political positions on both ends of the spectrum appear to be digging in deeper, becoming more fixed and rigid in their views. Whatever the federal or local outcome is, it has a higher probability in this climate of being contested. It is highly likely that one group will feel as though they haven’t been heard or that they have been cheated. Pockets of dissent and civil unrest will likely occur. You may even feel compelled at some point to voice your opinion. While revolts and fighting at a national level are not likely (at least at this point in history), the likelihood for instances of small pockets of fighting increases.
We know that you should prepare, based on your area’s potential for volatility, for periods of civil unrest. Protests can move from peaceful to violent relatively quickly. Enflamed rhetoric can propel baseless claims into the manifestation of violent actions by others. Be aware of this potential flash pan from November 8th through mid-January, after the newly elected officials are certified and seated.
Rent & Real Estate
The median rent in the United States topped $2,000 in June of this year. If you are a single mother, that’s more than your median income. If you are a single male, that’s almost 70% of your median income in just housing. Rents continue to go up. The housing market continues to cool, and the commercial real estate bubble continues to grow. It isn’t a lack of housing as much as it is a lack of affordable housing. As of August, 8.5 million of the estimated 44 million renters in America were behind in rent, and 3.8 million indicated they were somewhat or very likely to be evicted in the next two months. Landlords will increase the tempo of evictions before the winter months make evictions more difficult.
As more information comes to light about China’s house of cards real estate fiasco, residential real estate cools, and commercial real estate, the bubble we have been living under could pop. More significant social problems will emerge when you have a climate of heightened political discord, where utility, food, and housing prices make it difficult for people to lead a decent life. Crime rates go up. Poverty rates go up. The general quality of living for everyone suffers. How bad this gets through the rest of this year will indicate how dark or light 2023 will be. Expect this housing crisis to intensify for the rest of this year and grab headlines that will put a damper on some holiday cheer.
Russian/Ukraine Escalation
We remain on the brink of a global war. The early volleys involved sanctions and secret arms deals. The rhetoric was about protecting nuclear resources and containing the conflict. As we mentioned earlier, however, the predicted frigid winter will bring all-new diplomacy, placing more aces in Putin’s hand. Europe is highly dependent on Russian gas. While the United States produces ample natural gas for its needs, the whole endeavor is profit driven. The natural gas operations here will sell to the higher bidding European markets. Alternative energy components like solar panels, inverters, and other electrical and mechanical components will become in higher demand and have a shorter supply. That’s a win for China which is one of the leading exporters of these. Moth-balled higher polluting plants will be dusted off and “temporarily” brought back online. There may even be discussions to bring back nuclear plants. Energy and food are both tied up in the Russo-Ukrainian conflict, and the demand for both will be heightened in the winter months.
But what’s next for this conflict? The momentum has swung back in favor of Ukraine, but Russia is no stranger to wars that can drag on for years or decades. From 907 AD to today, there have been more years of war than peace. In the first six months of the conflict, Russia failed to gain complete control. They shifted tactics to focus on a few key regions and cities, and they are also losing some traction with those areas, primarily due to western armaments that can push the front line farther and farther away. Russian troops are suffering from low morale and a need for fresh troops. At the same time, Ukrainian forces have moved from the defense to the offense and attacked Russian supply chains at major air and sea bases and in previously secured areas like Crimea. The Kremlin labeling this conflict a ‘special military operation’ makes it difficult for them to recruit outside a regional level, but it’s necessary to appease the Russian population. Add to this that winter will slow ground-based offensive maneuvers, and the conflict may slow down in Ukraine but pick up tempo elsewhere.
Putin would benefit in Ukraine if he could escalate the conflict covertly and overtly in other parts of Europe. Amassing troops on another border changes the very nature of the conflict and deflects the world’s attention. While we wouldn’t entirely rule out the possibility of nuclear accidents, they remain improbable because of the world attention they draw and the multi-year fallout damage that would extend so far around the globe and across Russia. Still, it’s a threatening card in Putin’s hand. Even if Ukraine regains territories lost, they will have an ongoing guerrilla war with alleged separatists. We will just have to keep monitoring this conflict.
We know that this conflict will continue to drive up fuel and food prices worldwide and that there won’t be a quick end to the conflict. Expect an escalation of the conflict to be planned through the winter on the part of Russia and possibly some dramatic offensive just before spring in Ukraine. Expect more of a covert war from Russia during the winter months that won’t geographically be even in the area of Ukraine but will be intended to weaken western resolve and fracture alliances. The unknowns that could change the course during these winter months are the extent of opposition in the Kremlin, the underground opposition tactics of any emerging resistance movement, the continued impact of sanctions, and whether Putin can find, claim, and promote some winning narrative that allows him to save face and provide the visage of strength to the Russian people. So far, there are no indicators that Putin is looking for an out. That means this conflict will continue.
As this year enters its fourth quarter, we have to be aware that the potential for some pretty dramatic situations looms on our horizon. From food prices going up and fuel prices going down, rents and evictions too high while sectors of the real estate market cool or even collapse, ongoing war, and a massive federal election, a lot is coming to a boil in just the last three months of this year. Nobody can tell you with any certainty if these things will boil over and spill into your neck of the woods or neighborhood, but you would be wise to prep as if they may. Focus on your water, food, medical, energy, security, and financial preps. Download one of the City Prepping free guides or use the Prepper’s Roadmap to set a course and program and follow it.
At the end of the day, we’ll make it. It’s just that we’re in for some challenging times.
As always, stay safe out there.
The wealthy are buying land, energy, and water. According to at least one article this week, the ultra-rich are also looking to build bunkers and purchase private land and mercenary security forces to get them through the next unknown disaster. They are looking to preserve assets simultaneously as they are staring at a prolonged global recession and currency slowing and decreasing in value. Traditionally, this has driven investors into bonds or precious metals, and some of that is still going on; however, with whole economies teetering on the brink of a more significant decline, bonds aren’t yielding much return. 
So, if we factor in their pessimism with the knowledge that they are also the ones with the long-term vision who are also pulling the strings, for the most part, we have to ask then how this will impact us. First, there’s land. Whether that’s land purchased for large-scale farming and ranching, for the resources they contain, or for future building, raw land retains value through any economic cycle. Even if the commercial and residential real estate markets both implode, raw land remains a stable investment. In fact, as suburban residential housing fails, rural land increases in value because it is more sought after. While the percentage of corporate farms remains low, they aren’t as incentivized to grow as the family farm is. It’s easier to write off the loss on taxes than to struggle with the land and extreme weather. The same is true with factory farming operations. When the cost of grain and water is too high and cuts too deeply into shareholder profits, the inclination is to reduce the output supply while demand remains high. Profits continue, but the available food supply is reduced.
So, suppose this is our future where corporations are going to compete for the resources and control of the supply chain, energy, and food. In that case, there’s only one answer for anyone who wants to remain as independent and self-sufficient as possible. It sounds pretty dystopian, but it also is becoming more likely with each passing day. Our solution to maintain our independence is practical prepping. If the ultra-rich leaders of corporations and industry do see some nasty stuff brewing in our future, prepping will be a means to survive. If it just gets bumpy on the road ahead, and we make it through okay, practical prepping will be the equivalent of shock absorbers for you. Clearly, the ultra-rich are anticipating rocky times ahead, and you probably feel it in your bones as well.
Before being sold for slaughter, regular cattle achieve the age of 12 to 22 months and 18-24 months for grass-fed. Cows will consume 25 pounds of feed per day in the form of grain or hay. At today’s prices, that’s a minimum of $1,000 per year just in the hay, and the price is way up and still climbing since 2010. Additionally, the cow will need between 8 to 30 gallons of water per day, depending upon its weight and age. In some cases, the cost of the water is enhanced by the expense of pumping it from aquafers. The USDA puts that figure for the cost of transporting water at around .07 per gallon, so just using that low figure, each mature cow is drinking another $800 in water per year. So the current input cost of one head of cattle for just food and water is around $1,800. This doesn’t include transport, ranch hands, electricity, medicine required to keep a healthy herd, and so much more. We do know, however, that in 2019, the value of one head of cattle was only $1,031. Prices have shot up in 2022, which corrects the inequities somewhat, with a bred cow topping over $2000. These price adjustments move slowly over the 22 months for a cow to reach maturity, and $200 of marginal profit is a risky gamble.
If you talk to a cattleman, he’ll tell you that the beef market is broken but not on their end. Beef is bought at a premium, exported, then sold back to us. You may have seen those package labels that indicate your steak is a product of Canada, the US, and Mexico. There is a record amount of imported meat, and some of that imported meat originated right here. In the last 20 years, 75% of the feed lots in the US closed down. More people have left the farming business, and the supply chain has shifted to a more just-in-time method that favors the corporate packers. They don’t particularly care where the beef comes from. Talk to a cattleman, and they’ll tell you that corporate packers are more concerned with keeping profits up and controlling the market than they are providing quality meat. Just this year, for example, meatpacking giant JBS agreed to pay a 52.5 million dollar settlement in a beef price-fixing lawsuit.
In an inflation environment, prices go up for several reasons. If there is a rumor of a shortage, the prices go up. If news breaks that cattlemen are reducing their herds, prices go up. If a few thousand head of cattle dies from heat and lack of water, prices go up. Then there are the genuine input costs for feed, fuel for equipment, herd transport, processing, and even for pumping water from aquifers. These all put upward pressure on the cost of meat production. In some ways, the chain corrects itself slowly over time. However, each hiccup, even swelling freezer inventories, results in higher consumer prices. The retail price per pound of boneless steak has climbed from $9 per pound to about $14 per pound in just the last two years, making it a luxury food and pricing many right out of the market. The average consumer will be purchasing more affordable roasts and ground beef.
Obviously, the mega-drought will complicate supply levels moving forward. Reduced water supplies, high heat, and more aggressive wildfires burning up pasture land will be an ongoing problem as this drought, and high heat continues into next year. Skyrocketing input costs will continue to pressure cattlemen to reduce herds or even give-up all together, and these added costs will wreak havoc on the supply chain until they can be adequately absorbed and passed along to you–the consumer. When the herd’s overall health is strained, overall genetic uniformity can create an atmosphere where diseases can flourish and nutritional quality can deteriorate. Still, we are only seeing this beginning to impact the poultry industry at the moment. Overall, herd health right now remains good. These are all things we are monitoring rather closely.
At about 600 calories per dry pound, you can easily set aside thousands of calories for pretty cheap. Dry pasta can last for quite a long time, although the quality may suffer the longer it is stored. Additionally, be sure to pick up pasta sauce. Combine these 2 together and you’ve got a quick and easy meal. If you want a little variety to swap out the spaghetti sauce with, you can also use butter if you still have refrigeration or butter powder you can store in your pantry along with parmesan, herbs, and garlic.
Beans are essential calorie and protein sources after a disaster. You can either get canned beans, such as black beans, or dried pinto beans which can store for many years. If you can’t eat pinto beans for whatever reason, try legumes, pickled lupini beans, garbanzos, or dried peas. You can easily store away 12,000 calories of these for a low price.
A large portion of the world eats rice. Combined with beans, you’ve got a solid meal that will fill you up. At the time of recording this video, rice is still relatively affordable at about $10 for more than 10 pounds providing you with several thousand calories. Be sure to choose white rice as it can store for years. Avoid brown rice as it has oils that can go rancid.
If you just pick up one can of food per visit to the store and set it aside, you’ll have the calories and nutrients you need after a disaster. Canned food can have a shelf-life, but it is often several years from the point you buy it. Even after that date, it’s still probably good if stored under the right conditions.
Sports drink powders, powdered milk, and protein powders can be stored for years. These can be simply mixed with water and can give you valuable nutrition in a pinch. In addition to protein powders, there are powdered drinks that contain complete nutrition such as Huel. While on the discussion of powdered milk, self-stable options like almond milk can be stored and rotated into your diet. Also, there are nutrition shakes such as Ensure that are easily stored.
Protein and energy bars can also be great to have in your inventory to provide you with quick calories, act as a meal supplement, and require no cooking. 
Peanut butter is a source of fat and sugar that the body really needs, plus it’s a popular survival food. Peanut butter will go rancid from the fatty oil and change appearance and smell when it goes bad, so always check the smell if it’s past its expiration date. A 5-pound jar will have over 10,000 calories, so it packs a big caloric punch. It’s worth bringing up just plain nuts for high calories. While on the discussion of high caloric content, let’s specifically discuss fats.
Most of the options we’ve covered fall into carbs or protein. The third crucial macronutrient is fat. While oils don’t have an incredible shelf life, most under two years, they’re essential to healthy physiology. We have used olive oil stored unopened in a cool location years after we initially purchased it. We have hemp hearts which we throw in protein shakes. Additionally, consider having cooking spray to use for cooking.
Pancake mix is one of those items that offer an easy meal to make, just tossing in water, and has minimal cleanup. We personally like them for breakfast on occasion.
A few other breakfast options that are easy to make and require practically no cleanup. Cereal is about as easy as they come: just add milk. Oatmeal only requires heating up water and is a great warming meal in a cold environment. A little sweetener helps the oatmeal which brings us to our next set of items.
Several of the items we mentioned, such as oatmeal and pancakes definitely will taste better these options. Coffee and tea which we’ll cover momentarily go down easier with honey. If you’re going to be active, having calories will be very beneficial. Plus, they’re a morale booster. 
After a disaster, you might not think of how to season your food, so you should think of it now. You aren’t going to get many calories from bouillon cubes or spices, but they are shelf-stable for many years and can make bland food more appealing. Also, a hot cup of broth after a winter freeze can be a lifesaver. Salt and spices are often overlooked as bland food would get old quickly. We have to bring up sriracha here as well: it’s shelf stable and can make bland foods enjoyable. Use what works best for you.
Maybe we should have started off with coffee as the top priority because we’re not sure we could go long without it. With many people using Keurig machines these days, unless you have a backup generator or source of power, you might want to consider having ground coffee and a french press. Tea is another great stimulant to have on hand.
If you have kids, it’s a welcome treat when the stress of a disaster overwhelms them. For adults, it’s critical sugars and empty calories, but calories nonetheless. Stash a jar of hard candies in the back of your pantry. You’ll enjoy the comfort of them after any disaster.
These can provide you with essential salts your body will need to retain fluid levels and muscle functions, especially if you’re working in a hot environment and sweating a lot.
Along with the items that you can pick up at your local store and keep with refrigeration, it’s worth pointing out the other options on the market that would be useful if you want meals that are easy to prepare with often nothing more than boiling water. Such items are freeze-dried food and MRE’s which have all the elements already inside the pouch to heat up your food. Additionally, you’ll find items on the market that you can store for lengthy periods of time such as these food buckets. These obviously have a high price tag associated with them, but they’re a great option if you want food that you can easily transport or prepare with little to no effort.
As mentioned at the beginning of the blog, please check out our blog on water storage and methods to cook after a disaster. Combined with the information we outlined in this video, your family will be fine if you have to survive for several weeks after a disaster. For those that want to move beyond just 3 weeks of food storage, we would recommend you move to 3 months next as your goal. We have a blog we’ll link to which covers building a 1-year food storage. Everything we outline in that video can be applied to 3 months of food storage. If you have any questions or feedback, please post that in the comment section below. All the items we covered will be listed in the description and comment section as well. 
The first thing to understand is the Zero COVID policy itself. 
The second thing to understand when news sources seek to amplify the actual situation in the streets is the size and scale of these demonstrations. 
China has an iron grip on information. Protests coordinated to date have been communicated through dating apps, social media apps, and some limited messaging services. Google, YouTube, Facebook, Wikipedia, Reddit, Instagram, WhatsApp, Twitch, LinkedIn, and 100 or more services you may be familiar with are blocked in China. Censors actively suppress not only the news but the means to spread the news as well.
You don’t have to look too far back into China’s history to understand the lengths the government will go to maintain control of its people and the narrative. Many in the west will remember the Tiananmen Square protests of 1989. You may even recall the iconic “Tank Man” who, with shopping bags in hand, defiantly stood in front of a column of tanks leaving Tiananmen Square after the Chinese government’s violent crackdown on protestors. Who was Tank Man? Nobody knows. He was never heard from. Show a picture of the iconic moment to any citizen in China under 30 years of age, and they won’t be able to tell you anything about the moment. Those who do know anything, the older people who lived through it perhaps, would refuse to say anything about it.
Sadly, these protests will not likely result in any substantive change for the Chinese people. Time will tell if we are wrong with that assertion, but history supports the position. These protests could easily flare up to something even more substantial, leading to serious regime challenges for the communist government. There is always that possibility, but we don’t think the conditions are ripe for that just yet.
One of the most visible outward expressions of a collapse is the bottom falling out of the financial system. From double, triple, or higher-digit inflation pricing people out of basic necessities to dramatic market declines evaporating a lifetime’s accumulated wealth instantly, economic collapse can aggravate other conditions that can domino into a full-on failure. Many market collapses actually have a long build-up. The housing bubble, the commercial real estate bubble, trade wars, and the loss of faith over time in a single fiat currency all happen slowly over the years and then reach a tipping point. In some cases, the ultra-wealthy cheer on the decline in some ways as they profit off selling short and feel that they can maintain profits by shifting their money to other assets or more stable countries. However, that doesn’t always work as assets are often frozen, withdrawal limits are established, or the currency becomes so devalued that it doesn’t retain any fluidity. Nobody wants it nor transacts in it anymore.
The rise of agriculture also gave rise to cities, states, and nations. Without harnessing nature in agricultural practices, thereby increasing yield and concentration of food sources, nations would have never formed out of nomadic, hunter-gatherer groups. While weather patterns may be perfect for agriculture in a particular area for several centuries, they can change. The lack of floods in the Nile contributed to a dramatic decline in food production in the 13th century. Excessive rain in 14th-century Britain caused massive crop failures that resulted in massive food shortages. The Irish Potato Famine, also known as the Great Hunger, began in 1845 when a mold caused a destructive plant disease that spread rapidly throughout Ireland. While the Egyptians, British, and Irish survived the downturn, they all suffered through what can only be described as a period of collapse.
The health of a nation can also be measured by the health of its people. There are obvious factors like plague, disease, wars, and pandemics, but more subtle indicators like lifestyle and environmentally induced illnesses exist. From lead pipes used in Rome to cancer-causing pesticides to industrial, even nuclear waste, there are several environmental factors that lead to medical issues that sap a nation’s resources and workforce. There are also lifestyle choices that can contribute to a more significant decline in overall health. Refined sugars, preservatives, highly processed foods, smoking, excessive alcohol consumption, and all those other things we now know have to be taken in moderation or not at all lead to health issues like obesity, diabetes, fatty liver, cancer, high blood pressure, and the list goes on from there.
A decline in the birth rate indicates a nation’s decline. While environmental and social factors can impact fertility and fertilization rates, it is more indicative of a general lack of faith in the future. The future may appear too uncertain, chaotic, or rife with conflict that raising a child is just too difficult. Or, the future’s financial prospects are so dismal, and the current economic situation would only result in poverty for anyone trying to raise a family. Birth rate and fertility rate are helpful in analyzing and understanding a nation’s replacement rate. Populations that increase can put a strain on economies and infrastructure. Populations that don’t replenish themselves can experience slowed services, a decline in transactions and commerce, or even be left unable to defend themselves from foreign adversaries.
There are signs of decline that are less obvious than a financial collapse, unhealthy people, and declining birthrates. Sometimes it’s what you know, don’t know, or think you know that can destroy a population. During the First Inquisition, created by religious courts to combat heresy and witchcraft, Pope Gregory IX ordered the witch’s familial animal, the cat, especially black cats, to be burned and killed with the witch. Hundreds of thousands of cats were killed, leading to the rapid proliferation of rodents, particularly a bacterium carried by rats. That bacterium was ultimately the source of the Black Plague. From prescribing opiates for crying babies to sanitized tapeworms to lose weight, it’s often the misinformation informing medical practices that can cause death rates to go up in society. 
By extension of the misinformation and rumors, the next sign of imminent collapse is uncontrolled infighting. Scapegoats are sought for failures ranging from the response to natural or industrial disasters to inflation and financial market collapses. One group elevates itself and blames the other. Looking even casually at parliaments and congresses worldwide, you can see this play out in real time. If you look at the struggles of the oppressed or have-nots and the ruling classes and wealthy elite, history is littered with examples of infighting. That fierce infighting, inflamed rhetoric, and scapegoating often translate to the neighborhood level. Eventually, people don’t trust their own neighbors, family, or friends. Distrust is the first stage of infighting.
Even as the enemies within are formed anew, the enemies of other nations continue. Right now, there is a rising and outward expression of disdain for heavy-handed Western diplomacy. Europe and America are seen as imperialistic forces that have for too long reigned over and dictated the policies of other countries. Russia, China, Iran, and many others condemn the tactics of the US even as they deploy autocratic, harsh, and heavy-handed tactics of their own, dominate and invade smaller nations, and commit human rights violations. In the big picture, neither side is right. They simply try to bend the world to support them while profiting from the resources. These differing philosophies label each other enemies. They seek to dismantle and deconstruct the other. Wars are fought from nation to nation, and civil wars are fought within nations.
One of the most significant indicators of an imminent collapse is resource depletion. When a river changes course or runs dry, when wells and aquifers are depleted, and when energy can’t be produced to control the extremes of hot and cold weather, life in some areas becomes untenable. Forced migrations, immigration, and emigration create imbalances and competition for resources that may not have existed before. 
While the war, at the time of writing this blog seems, to be at a stalemate of sorts heading into winter, the potential for a strategic nuclear strike remains a possibility. Putin’s options are rapidly dwindling after not speedily attaining a victory in the early days of his “special operation” in Ukraine. There don’t seem to be any apparent off-ramps to de-escalate this war, which is dug in the trenches like the last 3 ½ years of World War 1. 
One of the inevitable victims will likely be real estate. The market has appeared to top out. With multiple downward pressures like higher interest rates, inflation, and a rise in unemployment, the potential for a correction is increasingly looking like a given. 
China continues to face multiple issues within its borders. Their Dynamic Zero-COVID policies and lockdowns are leading to small protests that are being countered by heavy-handed authoritarian rule. You will want to read our most recent blog, where we dive deep into this and assess whether it will lead to any substantive change in the country. Their internally-developed vaccine is proving less than effective, especially against new, more virulent strains. While it may be a point of national pride not to source vaccines from other countries, the real reason they don’t maybe the economics. At a cut-rate government price of $19.50 per dose for the Pfizer or BioNTech vaccine, it would cost China the equivalent of nearly 3% of its GDP just to vaccinate their population with two doses. Obviously, they have taken a different route in trying to quash outbreaks.
We decided to split this one off as it needs its own discussion away from the country’s internal conflicts. China continues to have territorial aspirations for the Kinmen Islands, Taiwan, South Pacific areas, and even Siberia, a region bigger and richer in resources than any place on Earth. A Russian failure in Ukraine could cause the Russian Federation to atomize, and Xi Jinping knows this.
Between the concern about diesel shortages and the problems Europe is facing with Russia cutting supplies, we need to begin preparing for the real possibility that energy shortages and price increases will increasingly become the norm. These issues will only exacerbate the supply chain problems we’re currently facing. Europe will struggle as its existing reserves dwindle, and it will turn to West Africa, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and green energy to try and compensate for the next decade of shortfalls.
The last few years have shown us just how interconnected, interdependent, and vulnerable the supply chain really is, and 2023 will expose more cracks and flaws in the tightly wound, just-in-time manufacturing system and its distribution. 2023 will bring with it more political unrest, a lack of raw materials, reduced agricultural output, rising fuel, energy, and transportation costs, and inflation. These will all hammer away at the supply chains.
2022 has seen its fair share of weather patterns that have broken records. Heat waves and records have been set again, and we will see new record lows in the northern hemisphere this winter. Multi-decade droughts in some areas of the world and deluges in others will continue to reduce agricultural output.
We did a much deeper dive into food prices this next year in a recent video. On average, food prices have been up 12% since August, and after watching that video, you will probably agree that food prices will climb much higher in 2023. They could rise 30-40% higher from where they are today in this next year.
We try to steer clear of politics on this channel, but we would be remiss if we didn’t address it from time to time on this channel in as non-partisan of a fashion as we can. The reality is that politics impact our daily lives. With the recent elections, the House leans Republican, and the Senate remains under the control of the Democrats. Neither party has 100% control and uniformity in votes over their own members. 
In colder climates or seasons where weather patterns are erratic, a germination station and indoor growing for the early stages of plants are essential for a good yield. Most people don’t consider an indoor sprouting or germination station because they feel it’s too expensive or difficult to set up. In this blog, we will show you how wrong those assumptions are by building a germination station for around a hundred or two hundred dollars, planting more seedlings than we could possibly plant in my space, alerting you to a few potential problems, and we’ll tell you the real story about how much electricity these systems use. Let’s get growing…
What you plant your seeds in will determine how well they germinate and how easily they transfer from your station to the garden. Here we will be using a hexagonal seed tray with 72 grow areas and soil blocks that we will show you how to make. We picked this one up for around $5.00 at the local hardware store, and making a basic one out of soil pods and a clear, hinged take-out container is also an option. Each has advantages and disadvantages, which come down to time and convenience. First, the seed trays are made for convenience. This hexagonal structure is superior to square or round, as the roots find the walls and shoot downward rather than spiraling around. Eliminating circular roots creates a better root structure for your plant when placed in its final garden spot because the roots will spread out more easily and will be less in a clump. 
Between the two methods, we found the soil block was the best. The hexagonal planter resulted in my Okra sprouts getting too long and spindly without well-developed roots for stability. The seedlings reacted to their grow container by shooting a root down instead of out in every direction. The soil block had solid roots that branched out. Here’s a side-by-side comparison. The one with the more tendrils was grown in a soil block. The other was in the hexagon planter. We had no choice but to transplant the okra because our other plants, like peppers, were still barely sprouting. We also found that the germination rate with the same soil and same heating pads was much more significant with soil blocks. When we transplanted the okra into small pots, we were able to replant other seeds immediately, and that was convenient.
These used to be expensive setups, but the price has come down. We’ll list all the parts and provide links in the section below. First, you need a wire shelf. These range in price, and you may already have one. You want to be able to create at least two feet of space between shelves, and you want to be able to run your wires through the shelves. Those are the only two requirements. For our lights, we got four bulbs on clearance at my local hardware store for $1.99 each, and we got a larger one we obtained for around $14. These range in price from about $8 for bulbs to $70 or more for large strips and bars. We constantly find these on sale, so it pays to shop around. People frequently use these grow lights in terrariums and vivariums. LED strips with an adjustable light spectrum and intensity have dropped in price in recent years, partly because of terrariums. These provide even greater light in a wider area with very little energy consumption.
Two potential problems are gnats and failing to keep track of plants. We use yellow sticky traps for the gnats. These are natural in most compost and any soil that has been exposed to the outside for any length of time. They are harmless but very annoying. Too many can cause problems with your plants. We find the sticky traps work quite effectively. They’re an inexpensive solution that replaces costly and potentially toxic chemical solutions.
Next, you will want to plant one to two seeds per block and make sure that your plant rows are all marked. Two seeds will allow you to thin them out later but will provide a greater germination rate. Water the soil blocks at least twice per day so conditions are right for sprouting. The enclosed structures may not need any watering at all because of their ability to retain moisture and humidity. Cover soil blocks with clear plastic wrap in the early days to help seal in moisture. Seeds germinate at different rates. Typically after the second set of leaves appears on your plants, they are ready to be transplanted into small pots. There is no problem with waiting longer, and it is best to wait as long as possible. If the plants are a little crowded, that’s okay. They are still developing a solid foundation from which to grow. You will want to keep your grow lights just a few inches above your plants after removing any plastic humidity barrier. Keep the soil moist by spraying at least twice per day. You will also want to incorporate a small fan for a gentle breeze. Plants breathe just like humans, and the breeze helps with the exchange of air, regulates temperatures, and encourages stalk development.
In this blog, we’ll give you the heads-up on five shortages we expect to see this year. We think some of these we’ll cover might surprise you. We also let you know the four factors you should use to evaluate any shortage, whether rumored or real. These issues may not lead to empty shelves everywhere, but it could. At the very least, it will leave many hunting for alternatives, going without, or begrudgingly paying higher and higher prices. 
With any shortage, four factors contribute to scarcity. The first is actual supply and inventory. This is the amount of the product being produced to replenish supplies, and it is the inventory in grain bins, refrigerators, packaged in its raw forms, processed and packed, or on store shelves. The math here is simple: decreased replenishment and dwindling inventories result in high prices and product scarcity. A crop fails, and replenishment suffers. A cargo ship gets stuck in a major canal, and manufacturing and deliveries slow or stop. Avian flu, mad cow disease, or something similar, wipes out herds and flocks, and supply suffers from both dwindling inventory and reduced replenishment.
The second factor of a shortage is consumer driven. It’s rumors and panic buying. If a consumer goes to the store and sees another person buying several massive bags of rice, beans, and Ramen, he will likely believe something is going down and may stock up as well, or he may go home and search up what disaster is about to happen. There’s always a disaster about to happen somewhere on the internet or 24-hour news cycle, and that’s where much of this panic buying occurs. Someone hears that a plant that produces a formula for babies is shutting down, so they panic buy formula, maybe for their baby, maybe in the hopes of turning a profit, perhaps because it’s simply in our nature to secure our piece of something before it is gone. The math here compounds the math before. If some scarcity already was depleting inventory, panic buying and rumors completely drain inventory on shelves. That sparks surging demand, as well.
Another factor that leads to shortages is actual inflation and production costs. Input costs and final retail prices can jump so high that inventories may be high but demand significantly contracts. As costs increase, suppliers adjust and reduce output. This swells and then shrinks inventories. When demand returns and any of the other two factors occur, the supply chain whiplashes out of its smooth operation. As input costs of feed grain soared and mega-droughts stretched well into their second decade, cattlemen sold off many of their herds while prices were still reasonable. This caused alarm in consumers, who then went out and stocked up on beef which shrank inventory, so demand went up. Inflation also caused a rise in prices at the retail level, but that money wasn’t trickling down to the producers, so many have yet to go full bore back into the production end and repopulate their large herds. That drives down supply.
The fourth factor is imports and exports. More affluent countries can offset shortages by importing more. The country exporting may suffer from reduced supply and high prices because, though they produce more than enough supply for their people, it is being exported for higher profits overseas. Production of cereal grains from Ukraine and Russia dropped, and so to did their exports. The rest of the world then scrambles to secure import contracts from other countries. This can be seen in natural gas, grain, and fertilizer because of the Russo-Ukranian conflict. Though America produces much of what they need, demand overseas means higher profits selling it there, so inventory on our shores drops, and prices go up along with demand. 
We just mentioned this one, but it’s worth mentioning again for 2023. At that time, we warned of the high prices we now see. Then we weren’t facing an outright shortage, but the signs of one in the future if things didn’t correct were undoubtedly there. Hopefully, you stocked up on steaks and hamburger then. If not, you certainly are seeing the high prices today. For 2023, we may see shortages in this industry because conditions haven’t improved. Input costs are still high, a drought still exists, and price equity has yet to trickle down to the producers from consumers, retailers, and processors. Cattle feeders are locked in a standoff with packers at the moment. There are plenty of difficulties for cattle feeders, so they have been less apt to replenish herd levels. While frozen inventory was high, it’s dwindling; and cattle producers are finding only modest profits on market-ready cattle early in the New Year. Replacement feeder cattle prices are driving projected breakevens to eight-year highs. Any of the other factors will launch this existing reduced supply into a full-blown shortage. Imports of beef may help some countries, but global politics and wars can impede that. Exports are also way up this year, so the beef raised here flows to the highest overseas bidder and not necessarily to your local grocery store. 
At the end of last year, the price of lettuce jumped 20% higher than the year before, and it has continued to climb steadily since then. A disease called impatiens necrotic spot virus that is spread through insects wiped out 80% of California’s Salinas Valley crop. That one area accounts for 50% of the country’s supply of lettuce. This is the problem that centralized large-scale agricultural operations pose. First, they produce monocultures or just a few cultivars of a plant. There are 140 varieties of lettuce, but you may only be familiar with romaine, bib, iceberg, leaf, and red, which are the ones commonly at your grocers. Growing such a limited variety makes the whole crop susceptible to diseases and infestations. Farmers tend to spray more harmful pesticides as a result. Lettuce is easy to grow, and we encourage you to follow along in our gardening series of videos on this channel, as this short supply will carry on into the foreseeable future.
Florida growers produce several types of citrus, including oranges, grapefruit, tangerines, and tangelos. When Hurricane Ian ripped across the state in September, we warned that it could take a toll on the citrus belt that runs across the state’s center. We were waiting for the reports and numbers to come in, and they arrived. The Sunshine State’s orange production is expected to drop 51% in this year’s growing season. Levels that low haven’t been seen since the 1930s– nearly a century ago. Citrus growers are also fighting the disease “citrus greening,” also spread by bacterium-infected insects. Infected trees produce green, bitter, and misshapen fruits, so they never make it to your grocery store or to juicers. Once a tree is infected, there is no cure. Over time the tree will deteriorate, and the disease will destroy the tree. It has to be removed from the grove. Don’t expect California and Arizona to make up for the shortfall. Citrus groves take time, and the drought will deter would-be citrus growers.
It’s easier to list out the problems here. Ukraine and Russia supply 30% of the world’s wheat, 20% of the world’s corn, and 60% of the world’s sunflower seeds and oil. Soaring fertilizer crops have already raised prices. The weather has significantly reduced harvests in parts of the world, like the United States. For corn, sorghum, soybeans, wheat, and other major cereal grains, supply in the US is down, and the price is up. While this has caused exports to decrease, the reduced supply is also being further complicated by the exportation to countries to fill in the gaps caused by the Russo-Ukranian war. Cereal grain shortages are one weather, disease, or infestation event away from a major collapse. You might have already noticed this if you tried to buy a loaf of bread recently. Corn alone makes up 95% of all US feed grain. These grains are in so many grocery store foods that the absence of one can quickly empty shelves across America.
When more people were at home during the pandemic, there was an increase in people stocking up on canned foods and beverages. This caused a rise in demand for aluminum that outstripped supplies. We are still feeling that ripple. This wasn’t just in the US, but the shortage was experienced worldwide. The top 3 aluminum-producing countries are China, India, and Russia, and some relations are strained there, to say the least. Aluminum production has declined over the years, so they were not ready for a surge in demand. This may take some time to work itself out, but you can expect odd shortages of canned products even as supplies of the food inside remain in good supply. Everything from soups to vegetables to pet food, soda, and beer can be affected. Also, expect food producers to make changes in their packaging if the aluminum supply is further threatened and as other people come to prepping and buy up shelved inventories.
There’s a potential supply problem brewing in the world coffee industry. Supplies are low and inclement weather is impacting harvests in Columbia, Vietnam, Guatemala, Honduras, and Nicaragua. Political strife may affect Brazil soon. Brazilian suppliers are holding on to their supplies to drive up prices. Many have long feared this day, and you may already be seeing price increases in what is a favorite beverage for three-quarters of Americans, with 53% having at least one cup per day. At the same time, demand is astronomically increasing. The global coffee beans market climbed to $28.9 billion in 2021 and is forecasted to reach a market value of a whopping $42.26 billion by 2027. I have long believed this industry was one disease or blight away from collapse, and we may be there. While you don’t need coffee to survive, though some might argue against that statement, other alternative beverages and flavorings are available. Still, it is worthy of the list as a possible compounded shortage looms closer on the horizon.
