Russia wants Ukraine. China wants Taiwan. Vladamir Putin and President Xi Jinping have met several times. Most recently, they held a virtual meeting on December 15th, 2021. Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov met with his Chinese counterpart Wang Yi earlier in 2021. Sino-Russian relationships have sweetened in recent years. They announced their first joint space project together. Even as a non-Arctic state, China is aligning itself with Russia strategically in the Arctic to ensure northern trade routes and resources. Sino-Russian trade hit the equivalent of 110 billion dollars in 2020, with both sides aiming to double this by 2024. Free trade agreements between the Eurasian Economic Union, whose most prominent member is Russia, exist with Egypt, Iran, China, and Vietnam. Free trade agreements are in discussion for the countries of Mongolia, India, Singapore, and Indonesia. There is clearly a growing alliance between the two countries.
Their tactics of destabilizing countries from within through the use of demonstrations, disinformation and propaganda campaigns, and rebels are shared, as well. Their land interests are different, though. China is seeking the same element of control over land in the South China sea, territories in the South Pacific, and bordering nations. Russia is trying to gain back the regions of the former U.S.S.R. It’s reasonable to assume assurances have been given at these meetings to turn a blind eye to each other’s territorial struggles and aspirations; however, there is likely some coordination of efforts going on here as well. The two countries share an antipathy to Western pressure and dominance. The US-led world order they mutually despise has made it imperative that Moscow and Beijing work together.
China and Russia have been getting closer and closer. China imported about 3.7 million tons of thermal coal, the primary fuel for electricity production, from Russia in September, 2021. That’s up more than 230% over the year before. At the same time, bristling from the Australian Prime Minister’s suggestion that an investigation should be launched into the origins of the COVID virus in Wuhan, China was able to deny cargo ships laden with coal from Australia in response. The U.S., perhaps in response to the warming of these red-leaning autocratic partners, abandoned a 66 billion dollar deal with France in favor of an agreement to help Australia deploy nuclear-powered submarines. This, of course, infuriates China and Russia both, especially China with its aspirations to control the Pacific and probably Indian oceans.
GRAINS OF THE REAL TRUTH
Russia and Ukraine account for about 30% of world wheat exports, and Ukraine exports about 16% of world corn exports. An invasion of Ukraine would create chaos and embargoes against Russian grain exports. China would most assuredly not embargo Russian grain. Russia and Ukraine’s combined wheat exports for the 2021-22 marketing year are estimated to account for 23% of the global total of 206.9 million metric tons. Ukraine accounts for an estimated 16% of global corn exports. So, you can quickly see how critical Ukraine’s resources are to the totality of Putin’s power. For its part, China produces 134 million metric tons of wheat. Combined, it is 44% of the entire world’s wheat supply.
China has been hoarding grain immediately following these critical Russia and China meetings. That is more than just coincidental. China is expected to have an incredible 70% of the globe’s corn reserves in the first half of the crop year 2022, 60% of its rice, and just over 50% of its wheat. This is all according to data from the U.S. Department of Agriculture. We will repeat this information for you another way because it’s critical to understand. So, half of all the world’s wheat is in China. Over half of all the rice in the world right now is in China, and all but 30% of the world’s corn is in China. You can bet that Russia holds a large share of the remaining reserves. In most cases, processing companies and trading houses in China, Russia, and India are state organizations running the storage facilities for the rest of the world. In the EU, hardly any farmers store grain or oilseeds.
The world’s grain reserves are primarily in the hands of just three countries, two of which are hostile to the West. The third is, at least, economically and geographically aligned with the others. What happens if Russia and China just flip the switch, shut off, and shut down the storage facilities along with their excess reserves? The answer is that the world starves without its grain. Prices soar. Farmers in non-aligned countries cannot obtain the seeds that they need. Ranchers cannot get the feed they need. Manufacturers cannot get the raw materials they need. We don’t know about you, but we’re not currently growing corn, rice, or wheat.
It is more than just grain, though. When you look at fossil fools, China has been hoarding coal, stepping up its production, decreasing its exports, and realigning its exports with Russia. For its part, Gazprom, Russia’s largest global energy company, has inked deals with former soviet countries like Moldova, Hungary, and even with the presidential dictatorship of Turkey. At the same time, Europe is trying to free its dependence on Russia’s gas exports, and Gazprom is closing critical pipelines and not seeking new contracts, which is evidenced by the fuel giant’s lack of contracts for exporting via the Yamal-Europe pipeline in February. Of note, Gazprom has not booked gas transit capacity for exports for February via two lines into Ukraine.
EAST VS WEST
All this information taken together points to only one conclusion. We even have a realistic timeframe for it. We have previously covered Russia’s chess game in Ukraine, but we haven’t covered China’s intentions with Taiwan and the South China Sea in-depth. Based on this information, we can deduce that the two countries’ territorial aspirations may be in concert with each other. The two countries have had more official and unofficial meetings. The two countries have territorial ambitions. The two countries have been hoarding food and fuel. The two countries have sought to destabilize opposing countries through orchestrated misinformation and division campaigns. The two countries have engaged in state-sponsored cyber warfare intended to destabilize adversaries. The two countries have profited the most off of the rest of the world’s over-dependence on supply chains and fossil fuels. Both countries have Anti-Western sentiment and a deep dislike for NATO– Russia because it sees the organization as a threat to its sovereignty and autonomy, and China because of the 1999 Nato bombing of the Chinese embassy in Belgrade. That led to Chinese officials condemning the attack as a “barbaric act” and a “war crime.” It also led to Chinese students around the world protesting what it called NATO fascism. China has also long been vocally opposed to the West’s “Free Tibet” movement.
The Winter Olympics will begin on February 4th in China, and Vladamir Putin plans to be there. You can bet there will be photo ops and handshaking between Putin and Chinese President Xi Jinping, even as the U.S. diplomats boycott the games and pressure other countries to do the same. There was a rumor that the Chinese president had asked Putin not to invade Ukraine during the Games in a call between the two leaders in December. This rumor hasn’t been confirmed. The U.S. has said it will not send dignitaries to the Games, which begin on Feb. 4, in a protest over China’s detention of more than 1 million Uyghur Muslims in the northwestern region of Xinjiang. For its part, China has condemned what it feels is U.S. interference and has further called for an end to U.S. support for self-governing Taiwan, which China claims as its territory.
It is possible the world could see movement against both the Ukraine and Taiwan at the onset of during or just after the Olympic Games. China is not likely to want to see any overt aggressive tactics implemented while it is hosting the games, but China doesn’t control Putin in any way. Putin cannot let the conflict in Ukraine perpetually brew without some resolution. Given the recent movements in Belarus, it doesn’t look like he is waiting. More than likely, further secret deals between the two countries will be struck. Perhaps, an actual timeline and date will be established to coordinate their separate territorial actions. Until then, the hoarding activities will be continued. Both countries know that further conflicts are brewing on their horizons. They are hardening their country’s against global opposition. They are, in effect, prepping. The writing on the wall is that we are in the early days, just before a major battle in a war between the East and West.
WHAT CAN YOU EXPECT?
Let’s just call it at this point and act as if China will move aggressively against Taiwan and Russia will move aggressively against Ukraine. Diplomacy hasn’t diverted them from their respective paths. The Western alliances are fragmented. The world still reels from the failings of the supply chain it has become overly dependent upon. The world is still recovering from a bad case of COVID. Western countries suffer from deep political divisions that are stoked by foreign troll farms and render positive governance and legislation impossible. To that, any unified, coordinated, and popularly supported retaliation for Russia or China’s overreach would be weak. Expect embargoes. Expect some limited military support and actions that could escalate dramatically. Large wars that unite a population against common enemies also bring that population together in its suffering. A larger war may be the cure for Western divisiveness.
Accepting these conclusions, you can expect to see even more massive price hikes and shortages in the coming months. Fossil fuels and food prices will spike sharply upward even as the supply is depleted. Expect cyberwarfare to possibly shut down critical supply chain and grid components– railways, processing plants, manufacturing plants, shipping intermodal terminals, electrical, water, and natural gas municipal grids. It’s very possible that the JBS and Colonial ransomware attacks last year were merely Russian flexings. Just as we conduct nuclear and missile tests to demonstrate to adversaries our militaristic might, these attacks may have just been minor demonstrations. An all-out and orchestrated attack on the U.S and European systems could result in a grid-down situation lasting weeks or months. It could destabilize countries completely. It would, assuredly, eliminate any opposition to territorial expansions of either China or Russia.
We will likely see clandestine, Russian-sponsored, small action sabotage attacks on U.S. and allied soil. The perpetrators will either be unknown, domestic actors unaware of their actual puppet string attachments to Moscow or Beijing, or lone wolf incidents seemingly without rational explanation. A covert coordinated attack in a city near you is possible. We just don’t know the extent of the Putin playbook. We don’t know the lengths to which Xi Jinping will go. We don’t fully comprehend the scrimmages they are planning together. It’s hard to build a defense when you cannot fathom the clandestine strength and playbook of the offense. The West is increasingly more divided every day. The East is becoming increasingly more tightly aligned in lockstep with each other.
WHAT CAN YOU DO?
There isn’t much you or even one country can do against such a larger and orchestrated scheme, the parts of which we don’t fully grasp. Many countries, the U.S. included, are looking at a multi-year retraction from the world stage and global influence. Many countries may have to move away from the U.S. dollar for the purposes of international trade. World-systems will require national and regional solutions. Some will need to shrink even further into local systems to meet their resource needs. The search for cheap labor and the global addiction to overseas products appear to have reached their climactic conclusion.
For the next several years, many will see people turning away from global visions to concentrate on getting what they need to survive at home. You can start prepping or expand on your prepping activities. You can plan, grow, and prepare at least a portion of your own food. You can strive for some solution that provides you even a little grid independence. You can cultivate your local community, realizing that national and global relevance is receding. The best that you can do is prep for at least 3-weeks, if not 3-months, of making it on your own. This initial supply you have set up for yourself will only last you through the initial volleys of a global conflict. This global conflict unfolding before us could dramatically alter our way of life. You will need to develop the knowledge, skills, and resources to rebuild a way of life in a dramatically different world.
Are we heading towards another World War? It’s possible. The problem between a war like that now and a war like previous ones is that our whole society is dependent on a supply chain that flows, cheap labor, the strength of the U.S. dollar, and a U.S.-led vision of democracy and freedom throughout the world. It could bring instability right to your doorstep. Even if there isn’t a protracted ground war, EMPs aren’t out of the realm of possibility. Likely, even Putin wants to avoid such an extreme option in place of covert actions.
By March, we will likely see movement in Ukraine and possibly Taiwan. Each draws upon the distraction of the other to diminish any focused global blowback. While both countries share a common antipathy to Western pressure, both are keen to preserve maneuvering room in the conduct of their respective policies. Stay tuned. Double down on your prepping efforts and your readiness to take over the reins of your supply chain. Cultivate your local resources.
Are we heading into another global war? Is diplomacy even possible at this point? Let us know your thoughts in the comments below. We try to read the comments and respond to them when we can, typically within the first hour of releasing a video. Please consider subscribing to the channel if you’d like to be notified when we release a blog and give this blog a thumb-up to help the site grow.
As always, stay safe out there.