OK, so let’s talk about the good news, at least good news for the moment. Even with the increased possibility of a spillover of the zoonotic virus in humans, it’s essential to put that into perspective and not panic. That is hopefully good news to many since we just made it through the COVID pandemic. Unlike the virus that caused that, SARS-CoV-2, H5N1 is a strain of influenza-type virus. Although there is no universal consensus regarding where the influenza virus originated, it spread worldwide during 1918-1919. Even before COVID, we did a whole video on that, which I will link to in the comments below.
What we do know is that we humans have over 100 years of experience and built up immunity to the influenza virus. Because of this, most humans, even newborns, have some antibodies against the virus. That alone makes it significantly different from the coronavirus. When a person is infected with the influenza virus, their immune system can recognize the viral antigens as foreign. Our bodies start producing antibodies that can bind to and neutralize the virus. These antibodies help to eliminate the virus from the body and provide immunity against that specific strain of influenza. Even lacking the exact ability to identify a particular antigen, our immune systems can recognize other proteins in the virus.
When humans do catch H5N1, when it does spill over and spread human-to-human, it likely won’t have the same lethality as a never before seen virus-like SARS-CoV-2. It will likely manifest as a nasty flu requiring the same attention as any other flu. Also, because we have some general immune defense against it, the rate of spread is reduced. This means that the chances of it becoming a wildfire-spreading pandemic are less probable, as the direct transmission line is broken by each person who can fight off the infection and contain and eradicate the viral load they received.
So, are we on the cusp of another pandemic? Not really, at least not at the time of recording this video. So much would have to happen to the virus. First, it would have to mutate to adapt to human proteins. That would allow it to spread between humans via respiratory droplets. Second, it would have to mutate into a more virulent strain than it currently is to have the chance of sustaining its spread and pumping up its lethality. It would have to leapfrog over a century of our working immune systems. Can it leap to humans? Absolutely. Can it kill humans? Sure. Nature is tricky and clever, and everything, including viruses, wants to survive and thrive. There’s just so much that has to happen, though, that I’m not overly concerned at this point, and I don’t think you should be either.
SICK PEOPLE
As of April 2023, there was only one potential case of H5N1 infection in the United States. However, it’s uncertain whether this was an actual infection or a misdiagnosis, as the individual had been involved in culling birds. It’s possible that highly sensitive tests detected the presence of the virus without an actual infection. A 53-year-old woman from Jiangsu province in eastern China tested positive for H5N1 after exposure to poultry. Her symptoms developed on January 31, and she tested positive sometime in February. Although she was last reported in serious condition, there have been no reports of human-to-human transmission in this case or any other H5N1 cases.
Furthermore, the first recorded case of H5N1 in South America occurred in January, involving a 9-year-old girl from Ecuador. While she was initially hospitalized in critical condition, she has since recovered. Similarly to the previous cases, the girl had close contact with poultry, their feces, or their fluids.
Although these cases raise concerns, the absence of human-to-human transmission suggests that the necessary genetic changes in the virus to bind with human protein receptors effectively have not yet taken place. That’s not to say that it won’t ever make this leap, nor that human-to-human transmission isn’t possible in the near future. It’s just not happening now or in our immediate foreseeable future based on the evidence we do have.
WHAT YOU SHOULD BE DOING
The key to protect yourself is by minimizing your exposure risk. This can be a challenge as some of us in the preparedness community raise chickens. If you have a backyard flock of chickens, ducks, geese, turkeys, or Guinea Fowl, isolate them away from wild birds. Ensure your coop and its run are secure from wild animals and rodents. Use fencing or netting to create a physical barrier. Clean the coop, equipment, and surrounding areas on a regular basis. Monitor your flock for any signs of illness and isolate birds exhibiting symptoms. Practice a routine of good hygiene during and after interacting with them. Additionally, stay informed about avian flu outbreaks in your area through local veterinary services or agricultural agencies. A few years ago we couldn’t get chickens in our area for nearly a year as an illness was spreading through the chicken community.
When it comes to wild birds, avoid handling them along with exposure to their droppings. If you do encounter a grounded wild bird that may be in distress, either keep your distance and let nature take its course or wear a mask and gloves and practice good sanitation when dealing with it. Keep your pets away from any possibly infected birds, and watch them for signs of illness if they interact with wild birds, especially birds expressing symptoms.
The hardest-hitting impact, at least for now, will still be the poultry industry. Over 40 million egg-laying hens have been culled in the U.S. alone, making it the worst outbreak on record. Expect the price of poultry and eggs to continue to rise for more than just inflationary reasons. Higher prices and fluctuating supply will put pressure on all other meat industries.
WILL WE BE READY FOR THE NEXT ONE?
Here’s the rub. The potential for biological threats, whether natural or man-made are increasing on a daily basis. Since the early 1900’s, there’s been 11 outbreaks. Of those 11, 5 of them had a lethality equal to or greater than Covid. And as you can probably easily imagine, there’s been other new, more pathogenic viruses that emerged in the last several decades.
I think there’s 4 current primary areas of concern:
- When I graduated in 1999, one of the biggest concerns within the Microbiology community was the inevitable outbreak of an illness that could not be contained or treated. The medicine of that time was being outpaced by pathogens that were mutating fasterer than they could be stopped and the issue is still overshadowing the medial community to this day.
- New infectious diseases have been showing up at a faster pace due to growing zoonotic transmission from animals. Add to that, we’re now able to travel quickly and increase our risk of spreading those diseases faster.
- Laboratories around the world are testing and experimenting with increasingly dangerous pathogens. It’s not exactly a regulated industry and one simple slip up somewhere could lead to it quickly spreading. The origins of Covid are still uncertain and the potential for it having started in a Wuhan lab have not been ruled out.
- What’s even more concerning are the unknown malicious actors around the world who could purposefully release a biological weapon, a highly contagious one at that.
- When I do these videos, I realize the content is heavy.
- I just spoke with the owner of another YT channel while writing this
- We both were lamenting on the issues facing the world at present
- Hate to pile another discussion, but it’s something we have to pay attention to
- Keep doing what you’re doing, prepare, and take advantage of the time you have
