I really like this chart. This is EXACTLY what I have.
I decided to try making my own buttermilk. Instructions said, use 1/4 commercial buttermilk and add enough regular milk to make 1 quart. Then shake, shake, shake and let sit on the counter to “clabber” for 24 hours. Refrigerate. That was three days ago. I noticed in the fridge that it had separated.
I decided to use it today to make waffles. After re-shaking, it looked like really sour milk. Not smooth and thick like buttermilk– instead, watery with little pieces of milk solids. BUT, the waffles were delicious!!!! So, mission accomplished.
GARDEN HAPPENINGS:
Want to test the pH of your soil? Get two samples of soil, in two separate cups or bowls. Now pour 1/2 c. vinegar into one of the cups. If the soil bubbles, its pH is alkaline or above 7. If it doesn’t bubble, add 1/2 c. baking soda and 1/2 c. water and pour in the second sample. If it bubbles, your soil is acidic.
Along the same lines, evidently tomatoes taste sweeter when grown in alkaline soil. So, sprinkle baking soda in the soil around them. (How often? It doesn’t say. Does anyone know this trick?)
I was really excited about the carrots on the right. They are the best I’ve grown. Then there is the one on the left. Pretty difficult to peel, but enjoyable to look at!!!
THIS WEEK’S PURCHASE:vegetables 20 cans
Canned vegetables are back down to $.50 at Winco (except tomatoes). Pick up some corn and beans. These are great ways to extend meals to feed more people. Add corn and beans to canned beef stew for a good meal.
MISC. PURCHASE: Dial soap
A week or so ago I talked about a friend who went to the wound center and they told her to wash her wound with Dial soap. So…I got some. Your turn. Just pick up 4-6 bars of Dial soap and stick it in a cupboard outside.
1 can chili – She used Hormel Turkey Chili with no beans
Stir the chili into the prepared mac and cheese.
That’s it!
Picante Chicken
I LOVE to make this dish when I have to feed a lot of people. I just put boneless skinless chicken breasts in the crockpot and pour a jar of picante sauce over the chicken. Set it to low for 8-10 hours or high for 4-6 hours. Then shred the chicken and mix it in with the sauce. THEN, all you need are some flour tortillas, some lettuce, cheese, tomatoes, sour cream, avocados and whatever else you’d like in your tortillas. Everyone makes their own chicken tacos.
In an emergency, you can substitute canned chicken. Just heat it up with the picante sauce.
Some people make and can their own picante sauce. I think it sounds like a lot of work. I just prefer to store 4-6 jars of sauce so that I have some when I want it.
French Pancakes a.k.a. crepes
I LOVE these pancakes. I only make them a couple of times a year (ALWAYS on Christmas morning). I got this from my grandmother who used to make them for us every time we visited. I remember one time that my brothers had a contest to see who could shove an entire crepe into their mouth at one time. Ugh. Boys!
Per person:
In a blender
2 eggs
1/2 c. milk
Blend. With the blender on, add
2 TB sugar
1/4 tsp salt
1/4 c. flour
Blend. Then heat a heavy 10″ skillet, pour a thin layer and tilt the pan to spread it around. Turning the pancakes over is a little bit of a trick. I use a spatula and a spoon, or two spatulas. I like butter and syrup on mine. Put it down the center of the pancake and use a fork to roll up the crepe. My dad used to roll them up, pile strawberries on top and then finish off with whipped cream.
5 Signs Nuclear War is ImminentIn this blog, we will cover the 5 signs to watch for that would indicate a nuclear war is imminent. With the recent nuclear saber-rattling by Russia, the potential for a nuclear incident is at levels we haven’t seen in generations. There are ways to gain precious moments if you know what to look for in advance of an impact giving you enough time to survive the apocalyptic fall out that ensues. Let’s talk about it.HOW IT WILL GO DOWNIn the first minute after a nuclear missile launch, infrared satellites would detect the hot plume from the fired missile. Within 4 minutes after a launch is detected, NORAD teams must report their confidence assessment that an attack is underway. By 9 minutes, the president is notified. Within 10-15 minutes, ground radars detect missiles in mid-flight unless that missile is hypersonic. Within 20 minutes after that first detection, the War Room formats and transmits launch orders. As early as 22 minutes after that first launch detection, ICBMs instantly fire out of silos over a pre-programmed 5-minute fly-out salvo. As early as 27 minutes after launch, enemy missiles begin to detonate over their intended targets. If it is a hypersonic missile fired, depending upon its location when fired, the detonation over the target could be under 15 minutes after launch. Ground radars wouldn’t even detect the missile traveling at a speed close to 11,000 miles per hour in the upper atmosphere. Ground operators will have barely had time to interpret the infrared satellite data. DEFCON LEVEL DROPSThough a nuclear exchange could happen at any time, it will likely be preceded by several events. Smaller conflicts and clashes will occur. Perhaps NATO and Russian forces will clash on the battlefield in Ukraine, Russia, Lithuania, or Finland. There may be low-yield tactical nuclear artillery used on the battlefield. There would probably be a complete breakdown of diplomatic discussions. Ambassadors will be expelled from countries, and embassies will be closed. High-level threats and saber rattling will occur. Each of these stages could lower the DEFCON level. DEFCON, short for Defense Readiness Condition or simply Defense Condition, is the U.S. military’s ranking system for defense readiness for a potential nuclear attack.Because of the war in Ukraine, the current DEFCON level is at 3, which is an increase in nuclear readiness to higher than above normal. DEFCON 2 is near nuclear war, and Defcon 1 is a cocked pistol stage. That means nuclear war is imminent, missiles are fueled in silos, and submarines are moved into position for a stealthy assault.DEFCON is a well-thought-out system, but there’s no guarantee it will work perfectly. A launch would jump it from 3 to 1. Even though the system may lag behind reality on the ground or in the air, if it drops to 2, things are really bad. Level 2 has only been reached twice in the scale’s over 60-year history- during the Cuban Missile Crisis and at the start of the Gulf War.RICH EXODUSWhen the DEFCON level drops, you’ll see an immediate exodus of the rich. They’ll be halting any interviews, canceling any appearances, boarding their private jets or yachts, or attempting to charter a jet or yacht to get out of town. Without missiles even in the air, you will see them disappear away to their private islands, safer countries like New Zealand, or the jungle estates of Costa Rica. Many tech billionaires and elites have purchased properties in New Zealand, which isn’t directly targeted by any known nuclear arsenals. It has become the bugout location of choice, but the super-rich still have to get there. They will use the DEFCON dropping to 2 as their reason to go. They’ll flee to their bunkers and ranches in remote locations inaccessible to the common folk. The sky will be full of helicopters whisking the uber-rich or wealthy to safer places.You will also witness an exodus of politicians. Suddenly, the press will announce they don’t know where the president is. As the press investigates, they will find more and more politicians out of office, not making their scheduled appearances, and unavailable. The skies will buzz with small plane, jet, and helicopter activity. If you recall after 911 how quiet the skies were when all air traffic was grounded, this will be the opposite of that. If you are away from home, DEFCON 2 is also your sign to drop what you are doing and get home to safer, familiar environments where you can implement your nuclear plans or simply say your goodbyes, if it should come to that.MASSIVE CYBERATTACKSImagine your world with no cell phone reception, internet, or broadcasts of any kind. Unlike in the 1950s, we live in a high-tech world. The conditions and equipment are different, and so are the weapons of war. To gain the upper hand before a possible launch, countries would likely launch a massive cyberattack and satellite attack on adversarial countries. It is now known that Russian-based hackers disrupted at least one satellite internet provider at the same time they were launching an invasion of Ukraine. We also know these viruses are sometimes dormant and simply waiting to be activated. A surprise high-altitude detonation from a secret nuclear warhead on a satellite in space would result in an EMP–electromagnetic pulse. That would wipe out electronics and communications for thousands of miles, frying modern circuit boards and overloading transformers. If that extreme happens, you can assume missiles are in the air somewhere.Barring that extreme, massive systemic failure of systems from cyberattacks and hackers waging war is a sure sign of escalation. This won’t just be cell service but will likely be multiple services knocked offline, from street lights to electrical grids, airport radars, and wireless internet. Seeing numerous systems knocked offline simultaneously could be a sign that an attack is imminent.ASSETS AWAYIf you live anywhere near an Air Force Base, and suddenly it seems like every single plane, helicopter, jet, or bomber is in the air and flying overhead, a launch has likely occurred. Most of the nuclear arsenal is in the hands of the air force. Even if those jets and bombers screaming overhead are not nuclear-armed, the government doesn’t want them sitting ducks at the base. They need to be ready for the counter-offensive. High-ranking officials will be in transit to safe locations.While there will be an increased tempo at DEFCON 2, if a nuclear exchange is imminent, every asset that can be in the air will be in the air. Moments before detonation, many of the helicopters may land in odd locations before any EMP or blast. Then, if they can, they will take to the air again in an attempt to reach their locations or revised locations.WITNESSING THE LAUNCHNot to point out the obvious, but the most assured sign your country is engaged in a nuclear war will be the fact that you can see the missiles being launched. If your country initiated the attack, you have under 20 minutes to get to shelter. If your country is counter-attacking, you have less than 5 minutes. Several brightly lit contrails streaking into the sky can be viewed under proper conditions at a range of up to 200 miles away. If it’s just one white streak of a contrail against the sky, you should ensure you aren’t looking towards Edwards AFB, Cape Canaveral, or some other well-known space launch platform. If you see the contrail over the ocean, it’s a sub-based launch. If it’s not nuclear, it’s just as bad as it could spark a nuclear exchange. Even after the contrail streak has ended, a high-altitude rocket or missile will resemble a brightly moving star until its engines snuff out in space. If you see more than one missile contrail, immediately implement your nuclear plan.More than likely, you will see more than one of these signs. As far as a nuclear plan goes, that’s up to you. There’s no guarantee of survival. We will link to another blog we did on surviving the nuclear fallout, a blog on preparing for global war in this day and age, and a blog on 7 Practical Ways to Prepare for WWIII Right Now. As we said, there’s no guarantee of a survival with an event this large, but proper prepping can put the odds ever so slightly back in your favor.As always, stay safe out there.
What to Expect After a Collapse“Apocalypse does not point to a fiery Armageddon, but to our ignorance and complacency coming to an end” – Joseph CampbellWe haven’t had too much good news in the last few years. From civil unrest and violent protests in the streets to food supply chains collapsing, from pandemics to largescale power outages, to tainted water and land poisoned from large-scale industrial and transportation accidents, threats of World War and nuclear war, the rising cost of everything to the inevitable bursting of the bubble in a global economic meltdown and banks beginning to fail, from attacks on our power grid, cyberattacks, and nuclear power plants caught in the crossfire of a massive and deadly war, and so much more, the world is on a clear path of deterioration. That doesn’t even factor in the general disaster preparedness you should have for anything from a natural disaster to a job loss or sudden, finance-draining medical emergency.If a single event were to push the world as we know it over the edge leading to a collapse, there are things you can start doing today to prepare for that potential to ensure you survive. Making it through the days, weeks, and months following a massive disaster or a series of compounding disasters where you are cut off from outside assistance, and laws and order have broken down starts with what you do today. There are solutions to plug in today, remain safe and survive our uncertain future. Here are the 5 phases of a disaster and the 5 rules you have to follow to give yourself a chance at surviving the aftermath. PHASE 1: ONE TO TWO DAYS – SHOCKAfter any significant event, from a nuclear event (whether a nuclear power plant melt down or nuclear missile exchange), to a collapse of the banking system resulting in people making runs on the bank, people will initially feel a notable sense of disbelief. They are often dazed, wandering, or locked in their homes. You or others you know might have experienced some of this same disbelief and uncertainty when COVID spreading across the United States and residents were asked to stay home. You may have asked yourself, why is this is happening or is this really happening? During this event, it became a calculation period for many, as they sought answers as to why their world was thrown into chaos leaving them to wonder what they could do to make it through. For many, this threw them into a panic, and they comforted themselves by panic-buying beans, rice, soup, and toilet paper. They bought way more than they needed in most cases, and this caused snarls, upheavals, and collapses in the supply chain. That caused stores to put limits on purchases or sell out of inventory, exacerbating the problem. For the most part, however, these first 48 hours after a major event are marked with an uncertain and unsettling calm as people assess their situation and what just happened. For the prepared, it is a time of taking inventory and determining your safety at your current location. Do you stay or do you go before the masses make it impossible to do otherwise. If you have to get out of the area, your preparedness will keep you moving through to safer areas while others are still wandering around and scratching their heads in disbelief.RULE #1 – DON’T GET CAUGHT IN THE MASSESFor the unprepared, after the initial event has ended, they assume help will soon come. When they realize that help may not be coming, things can turn on a dime. This is where you have to be wise with your next steps. If you’re wanting to run to the store to top off your preps, the risk involved may outweigh any benefit achieved. If you have been preparing, your best strategy is to not venture out. We would never suggest attempting a run to the grocery store or gas station if things are deteriorating rapidly. It’s just not worth it unless there’s a very compelling reason particular to your situation. You do not want to surround yourself with the frighten and unpredictable masses. Knowing that things will move out of this somewhat calm phase to the next more chaotic phase in the aftermath, the momentary relative peace after the disaster may be to get to your location and hunker down because the first week might be even worse than the initial disaster.PHASE 2: FIRST WEEK – PANICThis panic buying activity is really when people emerge from their initial shock from the onset of the event in question. They are emerging from an information and resource-gathering phase of their post-crisis experience. After 9/11, people were buying plastic sheeting and duct tape for windows as they feared a biological or dirty bomb terrorist attack. The shock and awe are replaced by a very self-centered compulsion to get what you need before it’s all gone. When people realize services like utilities, medical, police, and fire are offline and may not return online in the foreseeable future, their panic level will increase dramatically. So too, increases the level of crime and vigilantism. Social order is really an agreement between people under the threat of prosecution. We all agree to stop at a red light because we know failing to do so will have consequences, either by hitting someone else who has agreed to the order or getting a ticket and fine. But what happened when the police refused to go to work after Katrina? What happens when the government can merely make threats of enforcement and future prosecution from safer zones miles away? What happens when mass looting in multiple locations cannot be contained?That sort of violent upheaval reaction follows the realization and acceptance of the fact that the lights aren’t going to come back on, the water may be tainted, and the police are overloaded. Many places around the world have been in this spot before. This is also when the Guard or military is pressed into service, assuming the disaster is confined to a specific geographical area and doesn’t involve the entire country or nation. When the military is brought in, you’re under martial law, and your only safe place is locked away and hidden from sight. Even if it doesn’t get that bad, the realization that services will not come back, that safety is less than guaranteed, and that the agreed-upon social contract is defunct leads to widescale panic. Expect runs on banks, grocery stores, pharmacies, gas stations, and other places where resources can be had. Understand that these resources are quickly depleted because most businesses do not have an on-hand inventory of anything that would last a hungry population beyond 72 hours under normal demand. If everyone in your city or town went out and filled their gas tanks on all their cars, your city or town would be out of gas by day’s end. If everyone panic-bought food resources at the grocery store to get them through an uncertain future, the shelves and stock rooms would be empty within hours. If everyone panic bought the lumber to board their windows, generators, utility lights, or whatever other hardware and equipment they perceived they needed from their local chain hardware store, the store would have empty aisles in days and some items within hours.Realize that different disasters will bring about different levels of service failure. Police or fire might still exist, but they cannot reach your area. Municipal water and gas might still flow through pipes to you, or the water may be tainted and the gas shut off to avoid explosions from damaged pipes. Electricity may be down for an estimated period, or there may be no hope of it being restored anytime soon. You must assess these things by the available information you can gather. Understand that depending upon the severity of the disaster, sewage, and human waste may be piling up, people may be wandering in search of food and water, and there may be corpses of humans and animals beginning to decay. It really depends on the type of disaster. While much of that is unrealistic for a severe storm that knocks out utility services for over a week, it is entirely possible in the aftermath of a deadly earthquake, hurricane, cyclone, or other mass casualty events where help may be a ways off, or not coming at all.Because you are more prepared than the average masses, your evaluation should assess whether your current location is sustainable. Do you have what you need? Is your habitat safe? Will it remain safe when others are in full panic mode after realizing civility and order are gone, and it’s every man for himself? RULE #2 – STAY OR GO?You need to evaluate this rule at every phase– the lead-up, disaster, and aftermath. Even before an anticipated disaster strikes, you must determine if evacuation is possible and doable. You may need to leave in the aftermath, but roads may be impassable. You must consider this rule the days before the disaster (if it’s an event such as a hurricane you can see coming), during the disaster, and after the disaster.As with many of the rules I will provide you here, evaluating your strengths and weaknesses before, during, and after any disaster comes down to the 3 Ps – Proximity, Preps, and Plans. What is your proximity to the disaster or danger resulting from the disaster? If you are too close or the disaster is heading your way, you must decide quickly whether to lock down in your shelter or leave while you can. What are and where are your preps? Did the disaster strike while you were on the other side of town, or are you at home with your preps? What are your current plans and future plans? Survival is about options. Plans and forethought provide you with options. When your options are narrow and few, your survivability is in jeopardy. Sometimes you have no choice but to hunker down and wait it out–that may be your only plan. Use that time to develop or implement your post-disaster plans. Always try to have plans A through C to keep your options available. Use the 3 Ps – Proximity, Preps, and Plans – with every rule and at every phase. PHASE 3: FIRST MONTH – EVERY MAN FOR HIMSELFIn small-scale disasters that are manageable, order at some level will be re-established. Maybe the lights will come back on, and some services will be restored along with a schedule and timeline for further restoration of services. Perhaps a curfew and citizen-assisted patrols will re-establish a livable calm. Maybe the disaster zone is cleared, and most everyone has migrated to a safer location. In most cases, that’s what happens. In most disasters, you can get to this point– a restoration of order– when there is the hope of recovery and restoration. There are disasters, however, where there isn’t even a sparkle of hope on the horizon. Rescue services go from “we can’t go in right now” to “we aren’t going in.” even if they aren’t as blunt. This is the “Everyman for Himself” phase, where it is often more dangerous than the disaster that preceded it. When you have resources and others do not, you are a target. When the smell of good cooking or the sound of a generator floats on the breeze through the neighborhood, good people will come and hope you share. Bad people will come to take their share.When you prep, don’t just set a few 72-hour kits of food and some bottled water aside. That’s a great start for anyone, but you have to also consider your operational security and the security of your location. In urban and suburban environments, people often live right on top of each other. Even if you prep, it doesn’t mean others have. Self-isolation and keeping a low profile is the best that you can do until some order is re-established, even if that’s a new order and the old order will never return.If you get through the first month and you are still in proximity of danger, your preps are running low, or your plans are few beyond staying safe, fed, and hydrated, it’s time to follow this next rule.RULE #3 – PAY ATTENTION TO THE DETAILSIf you’re a month into a disaster and no help has arrived, the amount of attention you give to rationing your supplies will be even more crucial. But let me emphasize that you must be doing this from the first day. Water usage, counting calories, and just being aware of your overall usage of your inventory will matter more than ever if you’re this far into a post-collapse situation. If you aren’t cutting down trees, moving rubble, or struggling to travel across the landscape but are tucked away and hidden in your home, realize that your caloric intake does not need to be as great. If you are engaged in one of those high-energy endeavors, realize your caloric needs will be greater than the minimal baseline to avoid starvation of 1,200 a day for women and 1,500 a day for men. We can’t stress the necessity of having enough stored water, even if you live off a well in your backyard. We doubt anyone in East Palestine, Ohio, is drinking their well water after toxic chemicals leaked into the water after the train derailment. Also, municipal water supplies are frequently damaged in disasters, or the water becomes tainted. Have the means to boil, filter, purify, and treat water and have enough stored water to provide for everyone in your family, including pets, for at least three weeks.PHASE 4: TWO MONTHS AND THE FUTURE – REBUILDINGIf you make it this far but are still deep in the aftermath with no sign of recovery, you can give up on any recovery coming your way. A disaster of this length is commonly referred to in this community as an SHTF event. That means the government likely will not be re-established. Norms and social order will likely not be re-established. Food and resource supply chains will likely not be re-established. You have to accept that you will be going it alone, rebuilding on your own, and relying upon whatever community you built before, during, or after the initial disaster. Were you part of a social club like a scouting group, a church, a hobbyist group, mutual assistance group, or a club? They may have organically come together to help each other. If you were part of a mutual assistance group, you are in a better situation than most because your group will already have 2 of the P’s– Preps and Plans. It is likely that at the two-month or more mark, makeshift services like police, fire, and medical may have been restored at a very basic level depending on strong your community is. It is natural for people to come together after a disaster for their protection and survival. It’s also natural for groups to form who are more of your marauding and lawless type. These two forces will conflict with each other, and your area may resemble a war zone or high crime zone at times, even as your thoughts need to turn to rebuilding, re-establishing food and water resources, and restoring whatever else has been destroyed by the disaster and aftermath.At the two-month mark and into the future, if you are going to stay in an area, you have to figure out how to rebuild and restore a livable order for yourself and your community, but you have to genuinely evaluate your situation. For example, how close are you in proximity to danger or to a safer locale? Is everything fine in the next state over? If so, maybe it’s time you plan to try and get there. What’s the status of your preps at this point in time? Those who weren’t prepared at all are either dead, gone, or taking from others, and the population has dwindled along with the resources. If you are out of supplies or running low, you may have no choice but to leave or regroup. And then there are your plans. Is there even a plan for the future, or will you need to find somewhere else to make your plans? If you have been in a constant lockdown or martial law period or there is still a nuclear or biological threat that you are waiting out, you will need to be calculating when it is safe to re-emerge or flee to safer areas. Always be planning a range of possible next moves.RULE #4 – PREPARE ACCORDING TO YOUR SITUATIONWhat are the most likely threats in your area? Have you given that much thought before? Do you live next to a large industrial or manufacturing facility? Do you know what chemicals they likely use? Are they consistently being cited for safety concerns? If you don’t know these things, try to find out. Do you live next to a train track that regularly carries hazardous chemicals? The residents in East Palestine just learned that painful lesson. Does your area have a history of earthquakes, tornadoes, or other natural disasters? What’s the worst event of this type in the historical record? We did a video on the channel providing a detailed risk assessment tool to help you in your research when evaluating the most likely threats in your area which we’ll link to in the description section below.PHASE 5: THE FUTURE – KNOWN & UNKNOWNIf you make it beyond the 3-month mark and are in the rebuilding phase or still getting to that phase, understand that your world will likely never return to any semblance of the way it was before. Understand, too, that whatever plans you had that got you to this point may not be tenable in the future. After the three months of what you need to survive is used up, your world may be so significantly changed that it’s a very different prep you must rely upon. That prep is your accumulation of skills and knowledge. Your skills and knowledge are the known, whereas the future is your unknown. Here we suggest that after this blog, you review our video on 3 Months Is All You Need As A Prepper, which we will link to at the end. In that blog, we go into much greater detail about what you need to survive the first 3 months after a disaster and why after 90 days, it will entirely depend upon your skills and knowledge.We’ll be honest with you, having a year’s supply of food and water for yourself is great, but it is absolutely not a guarantee that you will ever see the disaster’s first anniversary. Disaster may strike when you are in the next town over, and you may be cut off from your supplies altogether. Too many intangibles accompany a disaster of that magnitude, from compounded follow-on disasters to marauders to makeshift governments to a sudden case of appendicitis or some other acute medical emergency. Understand that your survival beyond 90 days will come down to your previously accumulated skills and knowledge. Those are your most vital preps beyond 90 days. Those are also preps that cannot be taken from you, so read that blog 3 Months Is All You Need As A Prepper, which we will link to at the end of this blog.RULE #5 – INFORMATIONBeing informed is gathering the information you need to make 3P decisions (Proximity, Preps, and Plans). This is done through observation, communications like radios, Internet, broadcasts, or other electronic-dependent sources. The second part of rule number 5 is knowing what you need to know. If you depend solely on YouTube videos or the internet to learn the skills you need to know, you will be in trouble. Develop skills as a core prep, but also have physical manuals, maps, guides, and printed materials to learn from and continually inform your decisions. Do you know how to forage for food from the wild while others depend solely on canned and mylar packaged food? Do you know how to garden and have seeds to do so? Can you build a precipitation collection system or a solar water distiller? You might not have all the prepping equipment you need. You might not have the space for what you’ll need for the full range of possible disasters, but if you have tools and some know-how or resources to learn from, what you know and can know will get you through the unknowns of the future. What you know before disaster strikes will allow you to pivot in uncertain and unknown times. For instance, you should have paper maps and understand evacuation routes, areas of safety and resources, and the like, but disasters can dramatically alter landscapes. Maps can be rendered almost entirely useless if you don’t also know how to read maps, navigate with a compass, and travel without vehicles. Know what you need to know before disaster strikes, and know how to keep informed after it has.For disasters, you have five distinct human behavior phases: shock, panic, everyman for himself, rebuilding either with a group or by oneself when it is safe to begin that process, and the unknown future. You also have five rules for surviving. First, take advantage of the calm before and the shock phase after the disaster to get to safety or, if safe, get what you need, though you should be prepped. Second, assess whether you should stay or go every day before and all the days after. If a toxic cloud, flow of lava, wildfire, army, or flood is coming your way on day 3, you should get moving. You will know through the information channels you established before any disaster and your observations in the aftermath. Continually evaluate using the 3Ps whether you should stay or go. Third, have at least 90 days of preps and equipment. More is great but less than that will drastically reduce your chances of survival in a long-term, catastrophic SHTF disaster. Fourth, prep for the disasters you might face, but definitely prepare for the ones you will likely face. Finally, the fifth rule is to prepare skills, knowledge, and non-electronic resources to help you navigate, rebuild and ultimately survive in an unknown and uncertain future. If you understand the five phases and the five rules, your odds of surviving go way up. As always, stay safe out there.THE 3 VIDEOS TO LINK: 3 Months Is All You Need As A Prepper – Here’s Why8 Overlooked Ways to Communicate When the Grid Goes Down10 Great Depression Skills That Will Pay WellFree Risk Assessment Tool: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AODaE92HjSo
“Thousands Have Lived Without Love, Not One Without Water” – W.H.Auden.
An incredible 53% of the lower 48 states are currently experiencing some level of drought. In the past, we might have shrugged this fact off. We especially did so if it was raining where we lived, or we lived in an area surrounded by lakes. A drought at this level hasn’t been seen in 1,200 years. The total impact on our modern world isn’t truly known. Food scarcity is just one possibility, but what happens when lights in major cities might be going out later this year? What happens when a wildfire occurs that sweeps across the plains driven by higher temperature winds? What happens when the drought causes severe weather patterns across the rest of the US? There are a host of issues that will in some way impact you regardless of where you live. Are you prepared for them?
In many western states, water rationing, fines, and even flow restriction devices are inevitable and in some places already being implemented. Let’s look at just three results of these droughts–the impact on agriculture, weather, and infrastructure, their not so obvious implications for your future, regardless of where in the United States, and what you can do about it now.
Download the Start Preparing Survival Guide To Help You Prepare For Any Disaster. We’ll post a link in the description and comment section below or visit cityprepping.com/getstarted for a free guide to help you get started on your preparedness journey.
INFRASTRUCTURE
In your typical drought, water is allocated to farmers and manufacturing, people are asked to reduce consumption, and prices increase. In these prolonged droughts that turn into megadroughts that we’re beginning to see, rolling blackouts are possible. The Glen Canyon 1,320-megawatt dam is 11 meters from its minimal operable water level, referred to as minimum power pool (MPP). That’s bad news for Arizona, Colorado, New Mexico, Utah, and Wyoming customers. Dams throughout the southwest region are operating at a diminished capacity of 25-50% of maximum output to retain MPP. Hoover Dam, fed by Lake Mead, produces 4.5 billion kilowatt-hours per year. The problem, though, is levels at Lake Mead continue to drop as it dries up. (http://mead.uslakes.info/level.asp) Hoover Dam stops operating when Lake Mead gets to 289.56 meters. It’s currently just 31 meters from that depth. At the current rate of decline adjusted for historical season average rates of decline, it’s possible we could see a Las Vegas desperate for power by the end of Summer.
Lake Oroville, California’s largest reservoir, is currently 55% of total capacity. Shasta Lake is at less than half of what it should be at this point in the year. In the Colorado Basin, Lake Powell’s water surface elevation is currently at 3,522 feet. It is quickly approaching the 3,490-foot threshold level at which Glen Canyon Dam can no longer continue to generate hydropower. That dam alone produces electricity for 5.8 million homes and businesses in 7 states. If it just drops 32 more feet, it will stop producing electricity, and over the last 3-years, it has fallen over a 100 feet. We could see this mega power generator offline by the end of this year.
Lake Mead is at a historically low 31% of capacity and has gotten so low that they recently discovered a body that had been dumped in a barrel there back in the 1980s. New Mexico’s Elephant Butte Reservoir is a mere 13% full in the Rio Grande Basin. When one region can’t produce the power it needs from the Colorado River or elsewhere, it has to turn to the other areas of the country. This forces major re-routing of power and burdens and stretches the grid to capacity. Prices go up for everyone, everywhere. Add to this seasonally hot weather and high energy demands, and you have rolling blackouts, power rationing, more restrictions, and even higher prices. Natural gas could help offset the hydroelectric demand, but with it more profitable to ship American natural gas to Europe and the high costs and demand for liquid natural gas, it isn’t much of a solution to the overall disequilibrium of the power structure.
AGRICULTURE
Just 3 of the states we mentioned earlier account for 25% of all the agriculture produced in the United States. That is an incredible 92.8 Billion dollars of agricultural product per year. Something you ate yesterday and something you will try and eat today was likely grown or raised in one of just three states, all of which are currently experiencing extreme drought conditions. When you add all of the states we mentioned in, easily a third of the country’s food supply is produced in these areas suffering from a drought right now.
We are just at the beginning stages of the warmer season, too. The crops currently in the ground have to endure the still to come scorching temperatures of Summer. Last year, the Walla Walla sweet onion suffered a crop failure due to high heat, resulting in 98% crop failure in some areas. Crop failures are more likely as the temperatures increase in the dryer months ahead. Nothing indicates the drought will be confined only to the states we mentioned. Many of the agricultural states in the Midwest are teetering on drought conditions, and the situation could get worse for many of them in the coming months. If aquifers remain low and are not replenished, the conditions that gave rise to the horrific Dust Bowl of the 1930s are not out of the realm of possibility. In fact, they are more imaginable than you might think.
Agriculture is forecasted to be down already, and surging fertilizer costs are already pushing food prices to historic highs. Water is a commodity. The average CA farmer pays just 70 dollars for an acre-foot of water. That’s 325,851 gallons of water. The average American spends $72.93 every month, calculated at a mere 100 gallons per day. So, the price difference is noticeable. One of the ugly sides of corporate farming operations is that they can often lobby for low-cost water. They pay far less per gallon than Joe and Sally consumer pays. It’s not unusual to get water rights for your corporate farm that is equal to millions and millions of gallons. It is sometimes more profitable to turn around and sell those per gallon water rights to municipalities than to use the water in their agricultural efforts. One notable corporate operation in 2009 made a lot of enemies out of King County, California’s smaller farm operations, when it permanently sold 14,000-acre-feet or 14.5 million gallons of state water for 73 million dollars. That water doesn’t get replenished. The small farmer still struggles to have enough water for his crop. The corporation reaps an instant per gallon profit and grows nothing, often receiving a federal subsidy as well. That’s great for shareholders but not so great for the food supply. It’s all part of very complex and highly charged drought politics. With fertilizer prices where they are, we can expect to see more of these backdoor water deals and less actual growing.
Another disproportionate weirdness in the agricultural industry can be seen in what we grow and to whom we sell it. Alfalfa accounts for 18% of California’s total irrigation water but only 4% of California’s agricultural revenue receipts. This alfalfa is used as cattle feed. A fourth of the total harvest is exported to China, Japan, and Saudi Arabia. That puts America in this weird situation where profits motivate us to sell to other countries what we increasingly and more desperately need here. Still, the alfalfa farmer pays just $70 for 325,851 gallons of water. Los Angeles spends $1,000 for the same amount of water. To say that there is an imbalance and a reappropriation needed would be an understatement.
Putting farmers and ranchers in the awkward situation of choosing whether or not to produce food or letting their land go fallow, or thinning their herd is not good for prices or food reserves. Expect this drought to continue and food prices to continue to rise. Expect that there may be an outright scarcity of some commodities as farmers have to choose carefully what they grow and pray for rain, all the while struggling with states for an allocation of water at an affordable enough price to bring a crop all the way through to harvest–all the while praying for rain.
FLOODS, DROUGHTS, TORNADOES, & WILDFIRES
Flooding depends significantly on the moisture content and compaction of the soil. When rain does fall, does it have time and the appropriate space to be absorbed into the ground, trickle into the aquafers, and remain available for generations to come? Or is the dry and compacted soil too solid to allow for absorption? Or, is the soil already too saturated from the abundance of rain skipping the southwest United States and saturating the northeast? The science of dramatic drought is still being studied, but we know that the drought in one area of the country can result in more extreme weather events in other parts of the country. The drought in the southwest is due to an extreme high-pressure system and warmer temperatures. Ironically, these warmer temperatures increase evaporation and the moisture content of the atmosphere. When that moisture finally does come down in the form of rain, it is less likely to be a light sprinkle over several days, giving the ground a nice slow soak. It’s more likely to be a deluge that can’t absorb into the ground and causes flooding. It does little good to drought areas unless it can be effectively collected, channeled, and contained.
Floods and droughts are related, but you may not have known that megadroughts like we are facing, can increase the severity of storms and tornadoes in other areas of the country? The higher moisture content and hotter than average temperatures make for sharper divisions between low and high-pressure systems and more evaporated moisture in the air. Tornadoes develop from severe thunderstorms in warm, moist, unstable air along and ahead of cold fronts. These thunderstorms also may generate large hail and damaging winds. While the correlation between megadrought conditions and extreme weather in other areas is still being studied, the evidence points to a higher potential for natural weather disasters in the areas that receive rainfall.
Also, the drier conditions in the West are leading to an early wildfire season, and it will become even more intense as the season goes through Summer and into Fall. In this drought’s earlier stages, we have already witnessed whole communities reduced to ashes in mere minutes. Most recently, exceptionally dry conditions and reported warm wind gusts of up to 110 miles per hour fanned grassfires in Colorado and wiped out over 500 suburban homes. High winds and dry conditions are also blamed for the wildfires that ravage California yearly and have resulted in quiet, seemingly safe suburban neighborhoods reduced to ash and cinder.
WHAT SHOULD YOU DO?
The biggies of agriculture, water rationing, increased natural disasters, the threat of rolling blackouts, and price increases result from the megadrought much of the lower 48 states are suffering through. There isn’t much you can do about that, but you can make a difference and create more stability in your own life in small ways. The easiest way to create greater stability in your own life is to reduce consumption, thereby reducing dependence. Wherever you live, seek ways to become more energy efficient. If that means home battery systems, solar, or just using less energy and installing energy-efficient bulbs, do what works for you. Also, be prepared for the power to go out. Assess your emergency power needs and then implement a plan to get those needs met. It isn’t a question of will the power go out; it’s a question of when, so you have the opportunity to be ready.
This megadrought problem just compounds with the high cost of fertilizer, the excessively high temperatures, and the global supply chain failing in big and small ways every day. You have to prioritize your food preps. At the very least, this will help to insulate you a bit from higher prices. At the most, it will carry you through any period of food scarcity. If ever there was a year to start your backyard or balcony garden, this was it. Food costs are rising, and we see no bright spot on the horizon. We haven’t seen the top yet. Have you thought of planting an apple tree or growing a potted cherry tomato plant? This is the time to do that. It won’t feed you entirely in an SHTF situation, but it won’t hurt.
And most logically and obviously, you need to prioritize water in your preps. We have a playlist on water on this site we will link to here: You will find everything from building a rainwater collection system to storing and purifying water. You should also protect yourself from destructive wildfires that will continue to threaten more and more seemingly insulated neighborhoods in the west. Even if you live in an area surrounded by water, and it’s raining now, you should still be making sure you have stored water on hand, the means to filter and purify water, and rain collection systems in place. Simply collecting rain and using it to water your garden will save you hundreds of dollars per year. It will also ensure you have a freshwater supply should the municipal supply ever become tainted or poisoned. If you live in any one of the many states being directly impacted or threatened by drought, you absolutely have to do something to collect and conserve your personal water resources.
CONCLUSION
The majority of the country is suffering under the effects of the worst drought in over 1,200 years of scientific records. There aren’t any rain clouds on the horizon right now. Water tables continue to drop. The heat will still set new records, and agriculture and infrastructure will continue to suffer. You will feel the impact of this megadrought, no matter where you live in the US, especially if it doesn’t get better. You will feel it wherever you are if you rely on American farms or ranchers for your food. You will feel it if you depend on low-cost utilities. Still, there are ways you can lessen this impact. Find a video to help you out of this coming predicament in the City Prepping Water Playlist I will link to here and start working on a water-wise prepping solution today.
Just a few weeks ago I recommendedhamtestonline.com as a good resource for getting your license. I just now saw that as of June 30, they are shutting down their website. Don’t worry, there are other sites……. but I did like their system.
Do you have a first aid kit that you can throw in the car at a moment’s notice? Just think about what you would want. At a youth camp, the things we used most were: tweezers for splinters, moleskin for blisters, bandaids, aspirin, aloe vera gel for sunburns, and chapstick (or Mentholatum). This is a good start. Find a “fanny pack” or small backpack, or another small container for your kit, and just start gathering what you probably already have. I have first aid kits in each of my 72-hour kits. These FAKs fit into a quart-size zip lock bag, yet are quite comprehensive. At any craft store, you can get very small baggies (2″ X 2″ or any size you want). I used these small bags to pack a “few” aspirin, Tylenol, Benadryl, tums, Pepto Bismol tablets, and whatever else I wanted. You don’t need a year’s supply of Tylenol. You just want something you might need if you are away from home or stuck someplace unexpectedly.
GARDEN HAPPENINGS:
I grow a lot of things in 5-gallon buckets. I bought a lot of them over the last few years at a local agriculture place. But here’s the thing….. when I compared them to an actual 5-gallon bucket, they are NOT the same!!! Even the 5-gallon fabric grow bags that I like are NOT actually 5 gallons. I like the buckets that you can get at Lowe’s or Home Depot or Harbor Freight. BUT, I don’t want them all over the yard because…..well…. they aren’t very aesthetically pleasing. I’ve decided that the best solution are the fabric bags that are sold as 7 gallon. They are the closest in size to the 5-gallon bucket. Here are the ones I just bought. Delxo 12-Pack 7 Gallon Grow Bags Heavy Duty Aeration Fabric Pots Thickened Nonwoven Fabric Pots Plant Grow Bags
There are several different brands, and they are mostly the same.
Now, what can you grow in them? THIS article explains what you can grow, and how many you can put in one container. It also offers some good advice about planting and growing them. Grow Food In 5 Gallon Buckets – 15 Fruits & Veggies That Thrive. The only thing I would add is that when I try to grow broccoli in the 5 gallon buckets, they never get the big heads that you find in the grocery store. You just get small clusters.
THIS WEEK’S PURCHASE: pasta, macaroni – 15 pounds
The price of pasta has jumped since COVID. But at Winco, you can get a pound of pasta for about $1.25. Pick up 10 pasta packages. You can vacuum seal them, or store them in a bucket with a tight fitting lid. Pasta packaging is really susceptible to pantry moths, so protect your pasta before just putting it on a high shelf.
MISC. PURCHASE – Tarp and rope. During the winter, we cover our patio furniture with tarps. It only takes a season or two before those tarps are falling apart! In an emergency situation, your tarp could be used as part of a make-shift shelter, or to put UNDER your tent, or as a protector to keep the sun off your tent. We use tarps year round. The next time you go to Lowes, or Home Depot, just pick up one or two and tuck them away in the garage someplace. 50′ of rope will let you tie that tarp to a couple of trees or to another sturdy object.
FOOD STORAGE RECIPES
Split Pea Soup
From Ina Garten on the Food Network
I don’t make this very often, but I really like split pea soup. Craig?? Not so much. BUT…… the first time I made it he declared it was better than he thought it would be. LOL
In a 4 quart stockpot, on medium heat saute
1 c. chopped yellow onions (I use rehydrated dehydrated onions)
2 cloves garlic, minced (I use dehydrated)
2 TB olive oil
1/2 tsp dried oregano
1 1/2 tsp salt
1 tsp black pepper
Saute to translucent, 10-15 minutes. Add:
2 c. medium diced carrots (3-4 carrots)
1 c. medium diced potato (3 small potatoes)
1/2 pound of split peas
8 c. chicken stock
Bring to a boil, simmer uncovered for 40 min. Skim off the foam while cooking.
Add an additional 1/2 pound of split peas and continue cooking another 40 in, or until all the peas are soft. Stir frequently to keep the solids from burning on the bottom.
The first time I had carrots and potatoes in the soup, I couldn’t believe how GOOD it was!!!
Notice there is no meat. You CAN add ham from ham hocks, or left over ham, but you won’t notice if you don’t.
Fruit Smoothies
Taken from “There’s A Cow In the Kitchen” by Virginia D. Nelson
Fruit Smoothie
Do you have jars or cans of fruit that is too old to eat but you just can’t bear to throw it out? This is the answer.
In a blender:
2 cups canned fruit with the juice
3/4 c. non-instant milk powder or 1 1/3 c. instant
1-2 drops almond flavoring if using cherries or large stone fruits.
If using berries, use 1 TB lemon juice.
Macho Mexican Rice
From The Survival Mom
In a 10-inch skillet, heat the olive oil. Add
3 TB olive oil
2 c. white rice and stir until lightly browned. Be careful NOT to burn the rice.
Add:
3 c. water or chicken broth
2 TB tomato paste, or more if you prefer
2 cloves garlic, pressed
1/2 tsp salt or more to taste
Stir until the tomato paste is dissolved, then add any or all of the following:
1/2 tsp – 1 tsp cumin
1 tsp chili powder
canned green chilies
1/2 c. frozen or canned corn
1/2 c. salsa or chopped tomatoes
chopped onion
sliced black olives
chopped cilantro
Bring mixture to a simmer and cover with a well-fitting lid. Continue cooking for 20 minutes or until the rice is cooked but not mushy.
Pathos: Should We Be Worried About Monkeypox?The world is still recovering from COVID lockdowns, and now here comes monkeypox. Should we be worried about this smallpox-like virus? In this blog, we will give you an overview of the monkeypox virus, where we are seeing transmission, and the treatment and lethality. We pureposefully kept this blog short and to the point as we wanted to as rapidly as possible provide you with information to help you prepare as you see best fit. We will give you with as straightforward analysis as we can here. So let’s talk about this…WHERE & WHAT IS MONKEYPOX?At the time of writing this blog, there have been two reported cases of monkeypox in the United States. 22 cases have been confirmed in Canada. Worldwide, there have been 145 reported cases. Monkeypox isn’t a new disease. The first confirmed human case was in 1970 in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC). Most of the cases since then have been centered around the same area.The first reported cases of monkeypox in the US wa s in 2003, from an outbreak in Texas linked to a shipment of animals from Ghana. There were travel-associated cases in 2021 in Maryland. This is an emerging disease. It has been emerging for the last 20 to 30 years. The name “monkeypox” comes from the first documented cases of the illness in 1958 when two outbreaks occurred in monkeys kept for research. However, the virus did not jump from monkeys to humans, nor are monkeys major carriers of the disease. The animal reservoir carrier of the virus is not really known, though it is frequently linked to a rodent species in Africa.Monkeypox causes lesions that resemble pus-filled blisters. These lesions do scab over. Several recent cases have been linked to the spreading on genitalia from intimate contact. That is a big reason that this will not spread like other viruses have. Experts have warned that although monkeypox is not a sexually transmitted disease, it could be passed on through skin-to-skin contact during intimate contact.Monkeypox is caused by the monkeypox virus, which belongs to the Poxviridae family of viruses called Orthopoxvirus. This subset includes smallpox, vaccinia, and cowpox viruses. Because monkeypox is closely related to smallpox, the smallpox vaccine can provide protection against infection from both viruses. The current administration, in an abundance of caution, has ordered more smallpox vaccines to be ready.The last naturally occurring case of smallpox was reported in 1977. In 1980, the World Health Organization declared that smallpox had been eradicated. Currently, there is no evidence of naturally occurring smallpox transmission anywhere in the world. That eradication is attributable to the effective use of vaccines. Because smallpox was eradicated 40 or more years ago, we stopped vaccinating for it. Fortunately, we have some history with smallpox and exposure to it through previous generation vaccinations. Smallpox-type viruses are far from novel viruses.SYMPTOMS, TREATMENT, & LETHALITYHealth officials are worried the virus may currently be spreading undetected through community transmission, possibly through a new mechanism or route. Where and how infections are occurring are still under investigation. Symptoms usually don’t appear until one to two weeks after infection. While the virus is incubating in the body of its host, it is not currently spreading. Its infectious state is after the host shows outward signs of infection in the form of lesions.There is some discussion concerning the virus spreading via respiratory droplets, but to date, transmission in this manner appears to still be confined to the period following the outward expression of the virus in the form of severe rash, lesions, and pus-filled wounds. Overall, symptoms usually last for two to four weeks, while skin lesions usually scab over in 14 to 21 days. Typically, the virus enters the body through broken skin, inhalation, or the mucous membranes in the eyes, nose, or mouth. The key here is that the virus spreads primarily when an infected person is expressing symptoms. That’s much different than COVID where a person can be asymptomatic for over a week while still actively spreading the virus.In the world’s past, smallpox killed a third of all the infected people. That was before any vaccine existed, however. There is no treatment for monkeypox, but vaccinating someone with the smallpox vaccine after exposure and within 3-days offers the same level of protection as a fully vaccinated person. Vaccinating within 7-days after exposure will tend to lessen the severity of the illness. Past data from Africa suggests that the smallpox vaccine is at least 85% effective in preventing monkeypox. This vaccine, however, has changed very little since its early days. It is estimated that one out of every million people vaccinated will die from the vaccination. Fifteen will become seriously ill. 16 out of a million is a very low risk, but it is significant enough to weigh it against the actual risk of exposure.Right now, there are probably ample vaccine doses in the strategic reserve, and the US has pre-emptively ordered 13 million additional doses. So, there isn’t a need to formulate any new vaccine compounds. So, there probably won’t be a big push to get vaccinated, especially since there is such a big push to get people vaccinated against COVID. However, vaccine doses will be offered to high-risk areas where outbreaks are occurring. There also won’t be a big push for vaccination here because of the low rate of lethality. While monkeypox is rare and usually non-fatal, one version of the disease kills around 10 percent of infected people. The form of the virus currently circulating is thought to be milder, with a fatality rate of less than 1 percent. While we always suggest an abundance of caution, especially since my undergrad was in microbiology, we don’t think we need to panic about this monkeypox virus. If we do, it will be because we are seeing an asymptomatic, higher lethality, and a more widespread area of infection. So, while it should definitely be on your radar, if you avoid areas where infections have been known to occur, you avoid people who are expressing lesions on their skin, you postpone your purchase of or handling of any rodents, including Guinea Pigs and Prarie Dogs, we think you are probably safe from a monkeypox pandemic. As always, stay safe out there.
Difficult Next Few Months“None of us can come to the highest maturity without enduring the summer heat of trials” – Charles Spurgeon.If the weather experts are even partially right about their forecasts for the summer months of this year, the crisis we currently find ourselves teetering on the edge of will get substantially worse. Meteorologists, scientists, and even the Farmer’s Almanac all indicate that this Summer will bring record-breaking, searing heat to the United States and parts of Europe. Are you prepared for power and water outages or rationing? Are you prepared for heatwaves and failing harvests? The drought and record high temperatures are projected through this year and as far into the future as we can currently see. Some communities are already feeling the impact. Some states will soon suffer from a lack of electricity and even water, even though it may have just rained where you live on the east coast or the great lakes. Balancing the national grid and maintaining a nationwide food supply will bring these problems to your doorstep. In this video, we will look at the forecast, the known impact it will have on us, and what you should be doing right now to lessen the impact of the disaster we are facing.Download the Start Preparing Survival Guide To Help You Prepare For Any Disaster. We’ll post a link below or visit cityprepping.com/getstarted for a free guide to help you get started on your preparedness journey. WHAT DROUGHT?An incredible 53 percent of the lower 48 states are currently experiencing some level of drought. In the past, we might have shrugged this fact off. We mainly did so if it was raining where we lived or we lived in an area surrounded by lakes. A drought at this level hasn’t been seen in 1,200 years, and it only worsens. The Summer season of 2022 will be the second consecutive La Niña — also known as a “double-dip.” The La Nina jetstream pattern means an even hotter and drier summer for parts of the United States and Europe. That means the Pacific Northwest may get copious amounts of rain, the South West and Midwest almost none. When winter rolls around, most of the country will be unseasonably warm, while the Northwest and Northeast can experience record-breaking cold. If the weather pattern shifts to an El Nino Southern Oscillation pattern in 2023, these same drought areas could receive a deluge of rain so heavy that it cannot be effectively channeled to relieve the drought’s impact fully.Last year, winter got off to a promising start with a series of powerful storms that actually improved California’s overall drought outlook. However, an unseasonably dry January and February wiped out most gains. The highs and lows taken together leave large swaths of the southwest still deep within the clutches of one of the worst droughts in at least 1,200 years. The current forecasted temperatures this Summer will only exacerbate the problem by accelerating the evaporation rate. If the weather patterns continue for a third year, major hydroelectric generators like the massive Hoover Dam will soon be forced offline.Nearly every major city across the Northeast and Midwest experienced more 90-degree days than typical last summer. Meteorological summer doesn’t officially start until June 1st, but parts of the country are already experiencing temperatures in the 80s and 90s as early as February, while precipitation levels stayed at record lows. Indeed, except for the Pacific Northwest, everything from the Pacific to the Missouri River will likely be hotter and drier than we have ever seen. The rest of the country will be wetter with intense and severe weather: Derechos, tornadoes, thunderstorms, and hurricanes. At this point, the forecasts indicate it will not be a lovely summer for anyone.IT WON’T IMPACT MELet us start off by addressing what may be on many readers minds when reading this blog: it won’t impact me in my part of the country because we don’t live in the Southwest. The reality is that you don’t have to live in a Western state to suffer the consequences. If you already see the price increases at the grocery store, you can expect them to go up even further. If you are accustomed to stocked shelves with a large selection, you may one day be surprised to realize how many of your products are grown or manufactured from resources in Western states. You may pay mere pennies for your water and electricity now, but when water and energy are rerouted, you can expect those costs to rise. The North Electric Reliability Corporation has already warned blackouts could hit much of America’s Midwest. The minor problems of droughts and heatwaves are compounded by extreme weather and infrastructure in disrepair with parts that are unavailable because of supply chain failures. This is another perfect storm of disasters. Throwing more coal in the fire, adding more renewables, and even building a nuclear reactor at this point may help in the short term but will have no effect on the inevitable.There is a common and oft-repeated myth that the water crisis in the West results from mismanagement of the water. It’s easy to see why some people might come to that conclusion. The fact is that CA does dump water into the Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta, an estuary where saltwater from the sea mixes with fresh water from Sierra snowpack runoff. Water from the delta is used for irrigation and drinking water, and if too little freshwater is present, then seawater would fill the gaps. If the freshwater isn’t allowed to migrate, you would have saltwater that is neither fit for consumption nor agriculture. It’s also not true that all of Southern California suffers from a drought. San Diego has a desalination plant that takes water right from the ocean. The plant delivers nearly 50 million gallons of fresh, desalinated water to San Diego County daily. That is enough to serve approximately 400,000 people. It isn’t enough for the 3.3 million residents of the county, but it does offset the drought conditions a bit. Don’t dismiss the genuine drought crisis with pundit soundbites. Instead, look at the very real subsequent phases of this deepening drought condition. You may also hear people say that what we are seeing is cyclical and happens every several hundred or thousand years or so. That may be true, but at that time in our historical past, the population was not where it is today. The infrastructure we rely upon was not in place. Powerlines weren’t strewn across the land from power generating facilities to homes. Hydroelectric dams, pumping facilities, and water treatment plants didn’t exist. Indeed, large-scale farming operations didn’t produce a quarter of the rest of the country’s food. It is true that California faced significant droughts in the last several decades. Droughts do happen with some regularity. Unfortunately, the droughts we have seen in this century are happening with greater frequency, record dryness, record heat, and cover a much larger geographical area. And they aren’t just limited to California. Not to mention the population of California has increased by 17 million since 1976. Hence demand has grown for both water, food, and electricity. The population of Colorado increased from 500,000 to 5.6 million in the same period. Arizona went from 1.1 million to over 7 million. There are significant infrastructure challenges today that previous drought generations never had to wrestle with.We need to accept and prepare from the standpoint that neither renewable nor fossil fuel industries will be there to rescue us when the mercury rises and the power systems fail. Realistically, though, any solution to the crisis will have to be plugged in by you. The impact of this year’s mega-drought and accompanying record temperatures could dramatically alter your way of life moving forward.Understand that the top 5 energy companies in the United States control 416.2 billion dollars of the market. Energy and water, like natural gas, aren’t guaranteed to you, even if it’s produced next door or pumped out from the ground right outside your town. These resources flow to the highest bidder in a free market. That might be the state next to you. It can even be across your nation’s borders. Don’t make the mistake of thinking the government can do anything about it, and don’t make the error of thinking that your current supply of resources from any for-profit entity is at all guaranteed. Instead, anticipate that if you live West of the Mississippi River, you run the risk of a prolonged blackout.WHAT SHOULD YOU EXPECT NEXT?In many western states, water rationing, fines, and even flow restriction devices are inevitable and, in some places, already being implemented. We have already seen flow restrictions regarding electricity, as electricity providers have asked some areas of Texas to avoid charging electric vehicles during peak hours. In the coming months, it is a high probability that several hydroelectric facilities will need to go offline. Energy from other grids will need to be siphoned off to meet demand. All the while, a scorching Summer sun will result in higher demand. Natural gas could help offset the hydroelectric demand. Still, with it more profitable to ship American natural gas to Europe and the high costs and demand for liquid natural gas, it isn’t much of a solution to the overall disequilibrium of the power structure. Natural gas will flow to the highest bidding country, which isn’t necessarily the same country from which it was initially extracted. Finally, the higher temperatures result in drier and windier conditions. That results in a higher probability of devastating fires. Those fires often result from high winds. These fires can easily take out electrical networks. So, people can expect rolling blackouts, high rates, and even periods of extended outages are probable.Even if you don’t live in the West portion of the country, you will still feel the impact. It could be due to routing power or water to these troubled zones or away from municipalities to farm and industrial endeavors, but it will likely take the form of high prices and food scarcity. Just 3 of the drought-affected states account for 25% of all the agriculture produced in the United States. That is an incredible 92.8 Billion dollars of agricultural product per year. Picture it this way. Think of four items you had at dinner last night. Now take one from the table. Maybe that’s the potatoes because the crop failed. Perhaps that’s the beef because ranchers downsized their herds because of less water and skyrocketing grain prices. We are just at the beginning stages of the warmer season, too. The crops currently in the ground have to endure the still to come scorching temperatures of Summer. Crop failures are more likely as the temperatures increase in the dryer months ahead. Farmers cannot just pivot to another agricultural product. The reality is that the meteoric rise in the price of fertilizer and water scarcity have forced some farmers and ranchers to downsize and scale back their operations. Precisely when demand is highest, yields will be both intentionally, by choice, and unintentionally, by weather, reduced.Beyond energy, water, wildfires, and food scarcity, you must prepare for the overall weather impact wherever you live. The chances for the continental U.S. and the Caribbean Islands to experience hurricane activity increases substantially during La Niña. La Niña years show a significant increase in higher category tornadic outbreaks and an increase in the number of devastating tornadoes. And as mentioned earlier, the colder temperatures and harsh weather in the Northeast and Midwest are dramatically increased during the winter months. Cold air from the north can violently descend deep into Texas, and Texans are well aware now of the power outages that can result from that. To put it as simplistically as possible, what affects one area affects others. Just because your region may not be in a drought does not mean your area will be immune to the overall effects.WHAT SHOULD YOU DO?First, ensure that your food, water, and energy preps are in order. Having a supply of water, food, and backup energy will make you less susceptible to suffering from either outages or food scarcity. Planting a drought-tolerant vegetable garden will offset some of the food scarcities that may be coming and higher prices that are guaranteed. Replacing sprinklers with drip lines can also benefit you. Before this is over, some communities will rule that you should let your lawn die off or face fines. Creating a precipitation collection system and ensuring runoff systems capture whatever rain falls will help you conserve water resources. The rain will fall again, likely in torrents over several days or weeks once it starts. However, flash floods are possible when the soil is so dry and compacted, and much of the water simply washes over the drought-stricken land instead of seeping deep into it. The result is aquifers across the country dropping lower. Groundwater depletion is possible in some areas, even as rain occasionally falls. This will impact both industry and individuals.Make sure that no matter where you live, you have established some type of rain collection system. Even a rainbarrel connected to gutters can provide an emergency supply of water or sufficient water for a small garden area. If you live in an area where either fires or high winds are possible, make sure you prep for these. Clear flammable brush, trim tree branches, install shutters or other semi-permanent wind protection and check seals and insulation. High winds are a significant cause of blackouts so keep an emergency kit handy with everything you need to spend hours or days without electricity. If you are living in a wet region right now, expect that you might receive a lot more precipitation than average even as part of the country gets even drier. Conserve water, remove lawns and replace them with drought-tolerant plants, install rain barrels and create defensible space around your house if you live near wild areas where fire or flood is possible.If you live in a zone where a fire is possible, even in a suburb you think is completely safe, have a fire evacuation plan in place. Consider having a bug-out plan which we’ll link to below. Have established rendezvous points with your family members. Have a plan for when you only have mere minutes that will determine your survival.Assess your dependence on systems outside of your preps. If you require medications that also require refrigeration, how will you keep these medicines in their cool temperature range after the power goes out for several days or even a week or more? Have a small gas generator or solar battery system. We recently did a blog covering these options, which we’ll post below. Have a small backup refrigerator if it fits your medical needs. If you do use a gas generator, be careful about fumes and potential fire risks. We will be releasing a blog in the next few days covering a product that will power your whole home with renewable power. Though such a thing is an expensive option, something like this would be worth the investment at this point.In anticipation of a power outage during an extreme heat event, ensure you have fully charged flashlights. Make sure you know how to open your garage door without electricity. Make sure you have your preps to survive a week or more without electricity and with extreme heat. Make sure you have a bugout bag packed and ready to go if you live anywhere near a fire zone. At the very least, if you live in one of these heat zones, ensure you have the means to keep cool should the power go out. Use natural ventilation and battery-powered fans to cool your home. Keep curtains and blinds closed during the day. Drink plenty of water and put cool water on your body’s pulse points. Consider wearing a wet hand towel or using a spray bottle to mist yourself.The reality is that this drought and the forecasted heat still to come are unavoidable. They will have ramifications for everyone across the country, from the very direct and real possibility of rolling blackouts to the indirect ramifications of lower crop yields and higher prices. Consumer demand for energy will surge to combat the higher temperatures, and power will be allocated to commercial endeavors. Every day people will be blamed and charged extra costs. Expect the genuine possibility of rationing, fines, and flow control devices. Also, don’t expect these problems to go away, even when the rain finally cycles back.If the current forecasts are fractionally correct, you will be adding heat and drought to the problems of this decade when you talk about it years later. If you plan to be around to talk about it, you have to start prepping for it right now. The impact of the Summer’s heat will be felt most drastically beginning in just two months. That doesn’t give you much time to prepare or restock essential preps.As always, stay safe out there.
Running Out of Time“It comes down to a simple choice, really. Get busy living or get busy dying” — Andy Dufresne, Shawshank Redemption.Without stating the obvious, the next 5 to 10 years appear to be filled with challenges. That’s quite the understatement we suppose. Even politicians and world leaders admit that food shortages, supply chain failures, power outages, and weather anomalies will increase in frequency. When creating these types of blogs, our main intent is not to scare people, but rather hopefully bring enough insight to my community to spur you to prepare. We personally see prepping as trying to gather reliable information, making an informed decision, and then pivoting and altering my course. Over the last 15 years we’ve built a couple of businesses from the ground up and one skill that has served us well is trying to look as far as possible to the horizon to see what’s coming and adjust accordingly to put our business and our team in the best position possible. It’s a skill that has served us well. And here’s the thing: it’s not about living in fear when we see challenges coming, but rather acknowledging what we must face. We think that is what separates doomers from preppers. It would be easy to simply discuss how bad things are getting, but rather we want to provide you with actionable solutions that you can implement.In this blog, we will walk you through a few of the most likely things we will see in our immediate future, here in America and worldwide; but I will also share with you what you can do to mitigate the damaging effects. Again as we stated earlier, having information and also having a plan are the two key components here. The events of the next 5 to 10 years will not affect everyone equally. Parts of the world will remain unscathed. Some parts of the world will be forever changed. You will have to take from this how much the things we will discuss here will impact you and what course of action is best for you in your prepping plans. If there’s ever a time to prepare, it’s now. Download the Start Preparing Survival Guide To Help You Prepare For Any Disaster. We’ll post a link below or visit cityprepping.com/getstarted for a free guide to help you get started on your preparedness journey. FOOD In the last couple of years, we have seen significant catastrophes brewing in our food supply. After the Green Revolution, we realized larger harvests through fertilizers, pesticides, and select varietals. Consolidating smaller farms into large corporate monoculture farms produced more than we could eat. It also puts all our eggs in one basket, as they say. We relied on other countries and growing zones to keep us supplied with what we couldn’t or wouldn’t grow. Receiving those exports depended upon a supply chain that was functioning. This year, the prices for raw materials that constitute the fertilizer market — ammonia, nitrogen, nitrates, phosphates, potash, and sulfates — have tripled. The jet streams that push the weather and distribute the rains have, for the most part, stalled. The Western United States and parts of Europe are entering successive years of the worst drought in their recorded history. The heat and dry weather decimate crops, creating an environment conducive to high winds and wildfires. Farmers have to choose, even while food demand is high and prices are equally high, whether bringing a crop to harvest or a herd to market is economically feasible. Finally, a war in Europe’s bread basket has stopped the flow of 29% of the world’s wheat alone, but also sunflowers, corn, cooking oil, natural gas from which fertilizers are made, and more. Countries have responded by hoarding food and stopping exporting food and other resources.In the next 5-years, it isn’t looking to improve. Recent winds have actually depleted topsoil in areas of Kansas and other growing regions, reminiscent of the Dust Bowl event. The drought continues into its immediate third year of extreme but has really been steadily going on for over a decade now. The war rages on, and Putin is using blockades and withholding exports to starve other countries into willful compliance with Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. The supply chain remains strained, and exports remain low, so richer countries can’t just buy their way out of this problem. Expect that the next 5-years will bring food scarcity in some parts of the world and famine in others. This often leads to social instability. Expect that the weather won’t improve, and when it does shift, it will do so in such a powerful way that the water won’t be able to be contained. Five years from now, you will reflect back to today and remember the luxury of variety and selection that was once in your grocery stores. You will also remember the lower prices. As Kellogg’s CEO recently said, the “Retailers’ job is to protect the consumer. Our job is to protect our margins.” The only problem is that the retailers will tell you their job is also to protect their margins. The producers of products will tell you their job is to be able to turn a profit. If you grow a portion of what you eat in ten years, you will be better off. You might not be getting avocados from Mexico, Guatemalan or Vietnamese coffee, tropical fruits, or citrus year-round. Hearing from your grocer that a product is no longer available, or they’re sold out or can’t get any X, Y, or Z will become routine. In 10-year’s time, a global food crisis is inevitable. Expect more and more countries to hold on to what they produce. This will have devastating consequences for nations dependent on foreign sources. This will lead to famine and mass migrations.The individual solution is to turn to a more local source for your food. If it isn’t grown near you or sourced in your region, you might no longer see it on your plate. Expect largescale farming operations to attempt to diversify to hedge their bets against crop failure. These efforts take time, though, years of planning and forethought. Because of that, you can expect some land to be fallowed even as harvests are lower and prices go up. Countries will increasingly hoard food resources and decrease the amount they export. The short answer is that you should enjoy what you eat today. In ten years, your diet will likely be vastly different than it is today. WEATHER & ENERGYWe have already touched upon the megadrought, but the weather really needs its own category. When the water levels drop too low, hydroelectric dams have to reduce capacity or go offline altogether. This strains the national grid as loads are balanced to compensate for the reduced generation. Demand rises with the extreme heatwaves and extreme freezing during winter. We saw what these weather extremes can do with California’s rolling blackouts and the power outage in Winter in Texas. Expect to see community cooling and heating centers as people struggle to maintain a livable environment despite the extreme highs or lows of the mercury. Expect to see deserts in the middle of cities and towns where the water no longer flows but is trucked in and distributed. As in the late 1970s, expect states to ban the use of landscape irrigation systems. People will be asked to let their lawns die off as water is channeled to corporations for bottling, manufacturing, and critical agricultural needs.When the rain does come, it will probably be in torrents. The dry and compacted ground will not experience the gentle saturation it requires, but there will be flash floods as the water races off the land. The forecast for the next 5 to 10 years is equally as bad. One can’t simply take estimates of Earth’s temperature and rainfall all over the globe and the sun’s irradiance and know with certainty a forecast that far out. We know the El Nino and La Nina cycles are getting longer and more robust. We know that though volcanic activity with its climate-impacting emissions is low, we are overdue for something more significant. We know that the sun’s solar cycle is at a low for flares and sun spots, but what is low will be high over the eleven-year solar process where the sun shifts its polarity. We are overdue for another Carrington Event of solar cycle 10, the most intense geomagnetic storm in recorded history. This event was notable in the technology lacking year 1859. Imagine its impact on our technology-driven society today in solar cycle 25. We do know that temperatures and greenhouse gasses continue to rise. We know that more water molecules are in the air, so when the rain comes, it is more intense.Expect that we will experience weather intensifying to have global impacts over the next ten years. The first noticeable sign will be your own body’s thermostat. The term “wet bulb effect” will become part of our daily speech. If you don’t know what that is, you should study this more as it is beginning to impact parts of the world like India. The next will be your power system failing again and again. You will also notice more and more crop failures as monoculture farming lacks the strain diversity to literally weather the storms. Especially pay attention to the time of the next solar maximum, sometime around July 2025. If this plays out as forecasted, it will be too late if you haven’t started prepping for it, but most of the world will still not prepare.WATERThe super-rich have been buying up water rights for the last several years. We warned about this in many videos. What do they know that you will soon discover? Water is a commodity. On a blue planet, just a tiny fraction of the water is drinkable. Just a small fraction of the water can be used to grow food. Megadroughts have revealed how precarious access to water is. While some areas of the world are experiencing multi-year mega-droughts, other parts of the world are experiencing deluges of rain and flooding. The jetstreams are slowing, and weather patterns are slowing. So to, the distribution of water is slowed and unequal. Access to water in the next 5-years will become a crisis. Rationing and water theft are just the beginning. As this megadrought extends further into the next five years, expect a significant shift in population density away from dry regions to wetter climates. Also, expect once fertile farming areas to become too dry for agricultural endeavors. There is a real possibility that we will see another Dust Bowl in the next 5 to 10 years.Some areas will need to find alternative means to distribute water. The Earth will do what it will do, but once stable climates with abundant water resources will find themselves parched or without any water. This will result in mass migrations for some, soaring prices for all, and rationing and fines for others. Even if you have enough water for drinking, your area may not have enough for hydroelectric uses. In that case, expect the lack of water to impact your electrical grid.In fairness, one region’s drought is another region’s storm. Higher temperatures lead to more evaporation. Since 1901, global precipitation has increased at an average rate of 0.10 inches per decade, while rainfall in the contiguous 48 states has grown at 0.20 inches per decade. The same flooding that shutdown potash mining operations in Canada and coal operations in China can be expected in the coming years. Tornadoes, hurricanes, cyclones, floods, and typhoons will be on the larger side, more frequent, and more destructive. That water may not be coming down in drought regions, but we assure you it will come down. Expect weather and water inequities to intensify over the next decade.OTHER NOTABLE PROBLEMSMass migrations result from terrible weather, energy and food instability, lack of water or too much water, and war. When there is no food or water or means to regulate your environment, moving to a better location is essential to survival. This exposes people to more potential zoonotic illnesses as ecosystems crash into each other. As more and more wild animals are driven into exposure to domestic animals and people, the potential for another fatal zoonotic disease increases exponentially. Expect governments to try and contain mass migrations at their borders. Tempers will flare. In some countries, governments will collapse completely. Geo-political instability will be a reality for many.This, of course, decimates trade agreements and supply lines. This stokes the base protective instincts of nationals. This encourages fear of others and hoarding activities. Buckle up if you thought the last several years have been politically divisive. The following 5 to 10 years will be even worse. There may even be clashes between state and federal forces, as states exert their rights and people abandon hope of the federal government bringing them any assistance. Civil unrest coming to your quiet city or state is highly likely, as there isn’t anyone calming the public. The opposite is happening as domestic and foreign adversaries dump fuel on the fire and stoke divisiveness and distrust.Whether it’s Russia invading more countries or China invading Taiwan; whether it’s diseases or natural disasters; whether it’s the greed of some or the financial collapse of fiat currencies; I assure you that the next 5 to 10 years will change the world more than the previous half-century did. Your rights will likely be challenged more dramatically in the next 5 to 10 years than they have been in the rest of your life before. Economic volatility will affect all sorts of big-ticket items: cars, houses, college loans. The world is already in a global recession and period of retraction. Inevitable distribution breakdowns of vital services like water and power will further deepen the problems. Crime, suicide, homelessness, and poverty rates will increase as people become more desperate and filled with despair. Income doesn’t have an excellent track record of rising to help people with the challenges of getting by, but things will get more expensive. Basics like food, rent, fuel, water, and electricity will continue to rise in price. Moral retrenchment and authoritarian tendencies will increase on both liberal and conservative sides.SO WHAT CAN YOU DO?Again, we are not here to simply point out the doom and gloom we forecast in our collective future. While there isn’t a way for you or me to prevent another Carrington Event, flood, megadrought, power outage, war, financial collapse, or whatever, prepping in the right way provides us with a means to dampen the effects of these events. Prepping provides us with some insurance against the worst that life can throw at us. You can work from a plan by taking the FREE Risk Assessment we will make available in the comments below to understand your most pressing threats and how to protect yourself against them. Or, you can sign up for our free Prepper’s Starter Guide which we’ll provide below. All that aside, a few solutions should pop out to you when you look at these threats over the next 5 to 10 years. First, you must ensure you go beyond a 72-hour emergency supply of food and water. You should start with focusing on building a 3 day’s supply of food and water. Once you’ve got that, pivot to 2 to 3 weeks and from there, focus on 3 months. You should have water stored wherever you are, plus a means to filter and treat water, and collect precipitation. You should be growing and preserving your food and not entirely reliant upon a just in time delivery system that continuing to fail. You should have the means to power what you need to survive if the grid goes down for a week, a month, or even longer. You should prepare to lock yourself in for your own safety, and you should have a bugout plan and bag for when staying at home is no longer possible.Before we hit the ground, the lowest point of any disaster, there is always a long, drawn-out stutter-stepping. Even before wildfires destroy whole communities in mere seconds, there is a long-drawn-out period of dryness and high winds. Before the water runs out entirely somewhere, there is a long drought, and people like us warn you how bad things are getting. Not everybody listens, and we all certainly don’t react to the news in the same ways. Our point here is there is still time to prep and insulate yourself from even the worst of what the next 5 or 10 years can throw at us, but it will get increasingly more difficult. We’re just being honest with you. We think we’re in a unique moment, an inflection point if you will, the calm before the storm. It will be harder for you to prep your food security after everyone else realizes they should be doing the same. It will be hard for you to get a generator or even batteries after the power goes out the second or third time in the same month in your area.Watch this Risk Assessment blog which we’ll link below to get your FREE copy of the spreadsheet and determine the most significant threats you face. Work backward from that point of knowing to understand what you need to build up and put in place to survive, even thrive, through any disaster. We wish we could tell you things are looking up, that it will all be better with the next election or the next season, but we think you already know that’s not the case. Honestly, we are personally preparing for things to get a whole lot worse. Admittedly it’s difficult seeing these issues on the horizon, but we’re doing all we can to prepare and only you can make your piece of the world better by the preps you put in place today. You have 86,400 seconds each day, and it’s your choice what you do with them. We hope you choose to prep to survive an uncertain and turbulent future. As always, stay safe out there.
Is Collapse Inevitable?“We are not good at recognizing threats even if their probability is 100% certain. Society ignoring…is like the people of Pompeii ignoring the rumblings below Vesuvius” – James R. SchlesingerWe have to be honest with you. Each week we try to dedicate time to one blog detailing potential threats we want our community to be aware of. And as of late, it’s been a bit overwhelming for my team as we sit down and review what’s happening in our world that will soon impact us all. While we keep trying to steer the site more toward practical “how to” types of blogs (and we’ve got a lot them lined up we’re working on), we can’t ignore the pressing issues that are already impacting us and appear to be growing in their size and scope seemingly daily. We believe we’re at an inflection point if you will. The challenges we currently face are not merely inconveniences but real problems that will require us to rethink our level of dependencies on a failing system. In this blog, we will break down, as briefly as we can, the most prominent threats and problems we are now facing at this moment. There are many issues that are and will have an impact on us shortly, more than we can possibly cover in 1 blog, but this blog will be an analysis of the top issues and concerns that we guarantee will impact you and we want to make sure you have on your radar. If you have been following this site for any length, you will see that we have already covered some of these threats to your survival. In this discussion, we will take it a step further by showing how these singularly unique problems are compounding into a more significant problem and a precarious future. Prepping to face these exact threats will give you an advantage. At the end of the blog, we’ll go over some actionable steps you can take. If there’s ever a time to prepare, it’s now. Download the Start Preparing Survival Guide To Help You Prepare For Any Disaster. We’ll post a link below or visit cityprepping.com/getstarted for a free guide to help you get started on your preparedness journey. AGRICULTUREWe can just examine the wheat problem to understand the greater agricultural problem we are facing. Wheat is part of the grass family of plants, including all the major cereals, maize, rice, barley, oats, rye, millet, and more. It’s easier to grow than fruits and vegetables. It simply requires about 8 hours of sunlight per day, consistent watering of 12 to 15 inches over a growing season, and nutrient-rich soil. Add to this that you need individual, or corporate farmers growing enough, unfettered supply lines, steady demand, and the known requirements for a good harvest are all established. A good harvest resulting from the successful fulfillment of all those requirements means your country has enough for its people and can then selloff and send wheat to countries deficient in one or more of those requirements but high in demand.The top wheat producers in order are China, India, Russia, United States, Canada, France, Pakistan, Ukraine, Germany, and Turkey. These ten countries combined account for 536 million tons of wheat per year. Of those countries of the top ten wheat producers, China, India, Pakistan, and Turkey aren’t significant exporters. In fact, China, India, and Turkey could be characterized as hoarders at this point. The remaining 6 of the top 10 who export wheat account for just slightly under 50% of all the wheat exported from the top 10 producers. But now the problem is that too much rain in China has delayed the winter growing season and reduced yields. India, China, and several other countries have completely banned wheat exports. The Russian-Ukrainian conflict has banned or halted agricultural schedules and transports, thus removing 29% of the global wheat supply. Russia is also prohibiting fertilizer export, and the conflict is also putting strain on sunflowers, sunflower oil, maize, and barley. Around the world, many countries have also banned other food exports as global inflation soared due to the Ukraine crisis, and other markets were threatened. Soybeans, pasta, vegetable oil, potatoes, tomatoes, onion, cornflour, sugar, millet, butter, palm oil, and more have been banned from exporting by many countries as they brace for a worsening shortage and brace for the impact of lower export availability and continued problems growing. To that, harvests are smaller, too. Whether it is too much rain in China or not enough rain in Kansas, wheat is just one of many critical harvests with less than stellar harvests. The Green Revolution allowed the world to grow more crops on less land through the use of fertilizers, select varietals, and modern irrigation. Much of the fertilizer used today is a byproduct of natural gas. The problem with that is the costs for natural gas have risen 22% this year. The price for potassium chloride, Potash, the world’s most highly valued and widely used potassium fertilizer, is up 154% this year alone. With high costs and weather extremes, farms have to decide whether struggling to grow a crop is even feasible. Farmers are proceeding cautiously, unable to fully capitalize on soaring futures prices due to concerns they might not be able to fulfill such contracts.Taken as a whole, inclement weather patterns (high temperatures, drought, excessive rain, even a freak December wind storm that swept away topsoil in parts of the US wheat belt) mean a lower harvest. Countries in conflict and countries hoarding grain or ceasing exporting of grain will mean that some dependent countries will experience a period of famine. Remember, these problems are clearly seen through the wheat, but we really see combinations of these problems throughout most agricultural products. You may be on a gluten-free diet and not even eat wheat, but you would be mistaken not to make the connection between growing wheat and growing corn, sunflowers, rye, soybeans, amaranth, or any other agricultural cereal grain.Agriculture worldwide is not experiencing the bumper crops of years gone by. Maybe those heydays will return one day, but right now, expect food scarcity, even hunger, higher prices, and an outright lack of inventory, and expect it in most of the food aisles of your grocery store.WATER & WEATHERBeing able to secure water must be a top prep in your inventory. It is also one of the biggest global problems right now. As one of my earlier videos pointed out, shifting weather patterns and severe droughts in the western United States and parts of Europe are beginning to result in severe problems. Not only is agriculture impacted, but the hydroelectric industry is having to throttle back or cease the operation of some power generating plants. At the same time, higher temperatures increase electrical cooling demands. Higher winds because of the higher temperatures result in downed powerlines, and the cost of energy goes up, brownouts, rolling blackouts, and blackouts become a reality for many. Here too, there isn’t good news on the horizon. We are are in for a potentially challenging summer as high heat and drought remain the norm.While the world is suffering through higher heat, not all of the world is suffering from a megadrought. Parts of central Europe, Canada, the Northwest United States, China, and Australia are just a few locations receiving record-breaking precipitation levels. By the end of the first week in March, parts of Australia had received more than a year’s worth of rainfall in a week. Last year, torrential rain and flooding collapsed roads in Manitoba, Canada, and halted all supply-chain rail services out of the Port of Vancouver. One could argue that we see these events in various places in any given year throughout our historical record. This is true. The difference between then and now is duration, geographical spread, and frequency. We see extreme drought and flooding happening in more places, more often, and for more extended periods. When wind storms in Kansas are damaging the topsoil, how can you not reflect back on the history of the Dust Bowl? Conditions are aligning to be similar to that historical, nation-altering event. Another factor in this faulty comparison is assuming that the past will look precisely like the present day. In the 1930s, we neither had the same population, the same dependence on global supply chains, nor the consolidated practices of farming specific crops lacking genetic diversity on heavily fertilized land with enhanced irrigation techniques. Then and now are two entirely different worlds.While we already covered the impact of weather and water on your agriculture, realize that these affect your environmental zone, how hot, dry, wet, or humid it is, and your ability to regulate these zones. Do you have enough water flowing and electricity to regulate your environment? While some in the world would best be served by ensuring water runoff and containment measures are in place, others should brace for no electricity and maybe even no water. At the very least, higher prices and rationing are definitely in the future for many.GLOBAL & DOMESTIC CONFLICTRussia was still managing to sell some of its grain, despite added costs and risks for shippers, but in March, with the war continuing to escalate on physical and economic fronts, the Prime Minister of the Russian Federation signed decree 362 providing for the temporary ban of exports of wheat, meslin, rye, barley and maize to the countries within the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU), notably exempting Belarus. Ukrainian silos, undamaged by the fighting, are full of corn and barley that isn’t getting to markets. Farmers have nowhere to store their next harvest, due in late June, which might then rot. They also lack the fuel and labor to plant successive crops. Russia is blocking exports from Ukraine out of the port of Odessa, and Russia is likely feeling the lack of some supplies it requires, like seeds and pesticides that it usually purchases from the EU. As this war drags on into its fourth month, hundreds of millions of people globally will fall into poverty, food scarcity, and famine. The political ramifications, societal upheaval, and discord will create further global instability and complicate the supply chain problems everyone is feeling.The lack of food and water, higher prices for everything, global energy crisis, and supply lines that continue to stutter step and fail will result in regime change for some countries. This contributes to global instability. It also results in, as we see with the export ban and the hoarding activities of some nations, a focus for many countries to move away from a global stage and focus solely on their own people. The problem with this is twofold. First, many countries worldwide don’t produce enough to match their consumption. Turning entirely within will leave them lacking. Not to mention that many farmers can’t simply pivot from one month to the next. Irregular weather patterns, soaring prices, and a planting schedule make swift pivots impossible, so we would be asking for instant decisions from growers who have to longterm plan their crops with significant uncertainty. Second, just because the crop is grown in your country does not dictate that the agricultural product will be used for your country’s people and not be sold to a higher bidder overseas or across borders. When the ordinary person finds out that one of the reasons for the price of natural gas and the scarcity of wheat on the shelves is because those commodities in abundance in their country are being exported to global customers willing to pay higher prices, equating to higher profits, they will likely blame the politicians or the growers who actually have very little say in a free market global economy. Riots in the streets, looting of stores, sieges of capitals, and so much more becomes possible when anger runs higher than a truly global understanding of the problems.For his part, Putin is banking on stoking these potential conflicts by willfully suspending fertilizer, grains, and natural gas exports, even to countries not directly wrapped up or vested in the Russian-Ukrainian conflict. He astutely understands that instability in any country removes scrutiny of his own. Both political parties in the United States understand this, and we see it played out in many bicameral and two-party systems worldwide. Governments have abandoned addressing the more significant problems of society in favor of stoking fires of animosity and playing a finger-pointing blame game. Expect the rhetoric of blame, hate, and divisiveness to flame out of control as we head to November 8th of this midterm election year. All 435 seats in the House of Representatives and 35 of the 100 seats in the Senate will be contested. The possibility of domestic conflict coming to a town, city, or state near you is genuine. Are you prepped for political and social change? Are you secure against the conflicts that will come later this year, as food and energy scarcity come to the forefront and the blame game stokes the fires of sharply divided countries? WHAT CAN YOU DO?You don’t have to agree with your neighbor’s opinion of who is to blame to recognize the problem exists. You don’t have to agree with any expert opinion, pundit, politician, or scientist to acknowledge that we are seeing several issues converge into an even more enormous singular challenge to our survival and way of life. History is filled with examples of people who accurately heeded the signs and prepared when those around them did not do the same. The parallels to what is happening in the world right now and the extreme impact it will have on your way of life are pretty obvious once you remove the obfuscations of rhetoric and the blame game. Not seeing these imminent threats at this point borders on willful omission and extreme denial. In fairness, though, it is hard for many to see the danger of a multi-year megadrought when your area has plenty of water. It is difficult to see how conflicts and shortages around the world could possibly impact us in our small community far removed from the global stage. Yet, these disasters are stacking right up next to each other. They will compound any natural disasters we continue to face annually. The need for greater preparedness is very, very real.Even with that warning, though, most will fail to prepare. This puts an awkward and perhaps dangerous situation if you prepare when the thousands around you don’t. Your security needs become more significant. Having a complete view of your preps and not just a little extra food and water becomes paramount to your ultimate survival and your ability to weather any storm in the hopes of a future calm and stable time of prosperity returning. You don’t have to prepare with a complete plan, but you would be foolish not to prepare at all. As I cover in the complete prepping course, the Prepper’s Roadmap, you need to prep with a comprehensive plan and attainable goals. Make sure your core preps are in place of water, food, energy, and security. Make sure you stretch the reasonable goals of 3-days, 3-weeks, 3-months, and then a year or more.From your singular vantage point on the planet, you will not be able to change one iota of the perfect storm growing around you, but you can increase your odds of surviving it. If you only feel the effects slightly, it will be because you are using and rotating your supplies, managing your consumption, and securing the long-term resources you need for long-term sustenance. Whether you learn what you need to know to prep from this channel or another, the time is right now to either get prepping, double down on your preps, and make them whole and not piecemeal, or face the genuine consequences of an uncertain and unstable future. We really are at the point where the clouds have gathered, the wind is beginning to whip, and the rain is starting to fall. Folks can keep denying the storm or pushing the narrative that it’s just like every other storm, or they can systematically bring the animals in and batten down the hatches. I guess I am trying to say that, at this point, you can either seek the shelter of your preps, or you will be left out in the storm.CONCLUSIONWith so many of the problems we have brought to your attention over the last several months and years coming to fruition, you can likely expect increasing problems throughout this year and in the coming years. As we have been pointing out these problems for several years, everything from the possibility of pandemics to the possibility of power outages, we have witnessed these massive problems move from theoretical possibilities to real-time calamities. Our goal has been and will continue to be to direct you to actual solutions you can plugin for your own security in some of the other blogs here and the Prepper’s Roadmap course. We want you to be prepared for the future we are fated to experience, but we sincerely believe the window of opportunity to get prepared is closing fast.Still, you are not entirely out in the storm. There is still time to incrementally improve your preps or even to start prepping from nothing. The direction you take and the choices you make today will determine your course.As always, stay safe out there.Links
5 Deeper Consequences of High Gas Prices“Individuals are told to reduce our “carbon footprint,” and we should. But how many years of riding a bike to work would it take me to offset one F-15 flying for an hour?” ― Bruce E. JohansenThe world is addicted to fossil fuels. Let that sink in for a moment. We are totally dependent on a limited and non-replenishable resource that requires constant attention and refinement and is driven by profit. We need our fix of fossil fuels in so many ways to keep producers producing, manufacturers manufacturing, supply chains flowing, money changing hands, and economies churning. When the cost of a gallon gets as high as it is today with no clear endpoint insight, the repercussions are felt in every facet of your life and far beyond just the shock at the price at the pump when you fill your car. Every raw material derived from fossil fuels, from fertilizer to plastics, is affected. While you may be wrestling with whether that road trip vacation is feasible this year, behind the scenes, the economy is having severe withdrawals from the high cost of gas. In this blog, we will examine what is determining the high prices, any solution that might be out there, the hidden ways this will change our lives forever, and what even the experts are recommending you do. We do have to warn you up front, things are about to get a whole lot worse than it already is and far worse than they are currently predicting. So let’s talk about it.Download the Start Preparing Survival Guide To Help You Prepare For Any Disaster. We’ll post a link below or visit cityprepping.com/getstarted for a free guide to help you get started on your preparedness journey. WHAT DETERMINES THE PRICE, AND WHY IT MATTERSThe gas price is determined by these cost and profit factors: cost of produced oil, cost of refining oil, distribution, and taxes. It is a pretty easy cost breakdown, but even with all those costs, the gas price can be hugely out of synch with the actual factors. Any threatened war with Iran, Russia, or other large oil-producing countries and the price will shoot up. Any storm or platform or refinery closure and the price will shoot up. The price shot up when the Colonial Pipeline was shut down after a cyber attack. Any threat at all, real or imaginary, and the price will shoot up, and it rarely comes back down. When it does, it never goes below where it was. Still, politicians and pundits will tell you they have a solution.What they aren’t telling you is there isn’t an easy alternative nor a quick fix to the addiction to oil and gas. Simply eliminating state and federal taxes is more a political talking point than any real relief. It would only drop your $100 price at the pump by around $10. We know we would take that relief, but my point is that it isn’t the total solution. Neither is opening up the strategic reserves and drilling our way out of the problem. Countries could drill more, produce more, and empty their strategic reserves, but that oil isn’t necessarily destined for the country it comes from. International contracts and even higher-paying countries would be the market for the abundance of barrels of oil. So, profits would remain high for global oil companies, but there isn’t any relief for consumers.In the 1970s, OPEC’s ability to keep demand low and prices high were realized. OPEC, or the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, is a massive oil cartel that represents 13 member countries, which are responsible for about 40 percent of global crude oil production. Opec states also hold 80% of the world’s international reserve of oil. In 1973, Secretary of Commerce Peter Peterson remarked, “The era of low-cost energy is almost dead.” That statement could be revised today to say that “the era of low-cost energy is completely dead.” With Russia invading Ukraine, the resulting sanctions and embargoes, and the strain on global oil supply, OPEC only sees dollar signs. It took them months to begrudgingly agree to increase production, and that oil is still far removed in time from the gallon of gas you get at the pump. They could triple output, and it would still be weeks and months before you ever realized any positive change at the pump.The U.S. is the top oil producer on Earth, producing about 11.5 million barrels per day. Russia comes in at number 2, producing around 10.5 million barrels daily. There are 129 refineries in the US with a total output capability of refining 18 million barrels per day. Unfortunately, we use almost 21 million barrels per day. It is cheaper to ship crude oil than to refine it and transport it as fuel. If you do even the most uncomplicated math on the problem, you can see that demand remains high, supply remains low, and costs can only go up. The president can not simply give an order, and suddenly refineries will double their output. Knowing that there is an addictive demand for their product, these massive oil conglomerates are allowed to focus on retaining profits for their shareholders, wherever in the world they are investing from. Opening or establishing a pipeline for oil that won’t end up in your country’s supply or drilling more oil that won’t actually end up in your country make for cute, sound-bite one-liners for politicians and pundits to chant on your favorite evening news platform, but they don’t solve any tiny iota of the problem. In fact, profiting by producers, refiners, distributors, retailers, and politicians results in high prices regardless of the real factors of production, refinement, and distribution. It’s not a simple supply and demand formula anymore. Demand outstrips supply and is enhanced by perceived threats to supply. All the while, profit-seeking drives the price higher and higher.Is there a solution? Sure. We have to lessen our dependence, find alternative forms of energy, conserve energy, reduce consumption, eliminate taxes on fuel, increase production and retain what our country produces, increase refinery output, and pray that wars, weather, or oil spills don’t derail our effort. The problem is, for that price to go down, we have to be doing all of those things, all at the same time, all around the world. Every country has to want to do that. That’s not likely to happen, and you are probably wise enough to know that when prices go up, they rarely ever come down. Remember when gas was under two dollars? Remember when a “Six-Dollar” burger was simply a name, not the actual cost?THE WAYS THIS CHANGES OUR LIVESObviously, the most direct impact is realized when you go to fill your tank at the gas station. You are the end-user, and you need gasoline to get from point A to point B, home to work, work to home, to the grocery store, kid’s practices, and the list goes on and on. The average American commutes 27.6 minutes to work every day. Whether they do that in their own car, on a moped, carpooling, or via public transportation, that’s using gas. The high cost of fuel oil also puts pressure on alternatives. Natural gas and solar prices go up as people seek other means to heat their homes and run and power their lives. Maybe they heat their homes with fuel oil or liquid natural gas. Maybe they cool their homes with the 2,504 Billion kilowatt-hours of electricity produced from fossil fuels in the US. So, the apparent costs are clearly seen at the pump and when the utility bills come. These are the factors that determine whether staying employed to break even or even endure a consistent loss outweighs the potential insecurity of finding new employment closer to home. So, here are the often-overlooked actual costs of higher fuel prices:1: Dragging EconomyWorkforce and employment numbers are an often overlooked side effect of higher gas prices. Precisely when economies are struggling to regain their footing and recover from the pandemic lockdowns and repeated supply chain disruptions, millions are determining whether employment in a job that doesn’t make ends meet is tenable for the future. This will increase the ranks of the unemployed while also pumping the breaks on the economy. Put your hopes for an economic recovery off for the next year or two at the very best.2: Higher Production CostsWhen fuel prices go up, the cost of production goes up. Whether you are mining silver or growing corn, it doesn’t matter. Raw materials require low-cost fuel to remain profitable. When the cost of generating the raw materials and getting those materials to manufacturers and consumers outweighs profit, farmers opt not to grow, and companies scale back production even as demand remains high. High demand and lower output results in price increases and even outright shortages.3: Higher Manufacturing CostsEven if that farmer grows corn for feed grain and gets it to the rancher and the local factories, fuel-related costs are associated with the next phase- manufacturing. The manufacturers have to process these raw materials into usable consumer products. Low-cost fuel is required to get the materials to the plant, process them, and distribute the final product to stores and retailers. High-priced fuel results in scaling back operations or raising prices, or both– even as consumer demand remains high or increases.4: Higher Retail CostsWhen production, manufacturing, and distribution costs increase for every imaginable product or service, you can imagine that retail prices on everything go up to maintain profits. Nobody retails anything at cost, or there wouldn’t be any value in selling anything. Markups range from 1% to 1000% or more, but there is always a markup. The cost of producing the oil, paying workers, taxing the oil, supplying manufacturers, manufacturing usable products, and getting those products to markets and consumers get passed on to the consumer. This can result in supply failures, shortages, panic buying, and lopsided supply and demand models. In a nutshell, the cost of every single thing in an oil-driven and oil-dependent economy goes up and up and up.5: Breakdown of Fundamental ServicesWhen manufacturers scale production on chemicals essential for water treatment, municipal water prices go up. When the fossil fuel price goes up, utility prices go up. With peaking demand and reduced supply, the chance of grid failure is more significant. The parts needed to maintain a healthy power grid are often sourced overseas. With supply chains continuing to struggle, it is only a matter of time when the components required for a healthy grid are no longer available. Fossil fuels are non-renewable and required for all the other fundamental utilities and services you and everyone else have become dependent upon since the first three-phase alternating current power transmission at 110 kV took place in 1907 between Croton and Grand Rapids, Michigan.So, beyond the apparent price at the pump and the fact that there is no easy solution to plug in, you can expect large and small breakdowns, from producing resources to manufacturing to distribution to end-users and basic services. It’s not looking good.WILL IT GET BETTER FROM HERE?The short answer is no. As we mentioned, there isn’t a solution to fossil fuel addiction. As we mentioned at the beginning of the blog, things are about to get a whole lot worse than it already is and far worse than they are currently predicting. Profits will be maintained by scaling production to always maintain a demand imbalance. After all, what can you do about it? Go solar or buy an electric vehicle? Those panels require fossil fuels, mining, manufacturing, and distribution to create. The same is true for the electric car, but it also requires fossil fuels to get its charge. The world has realized a heyday of manufacturing and distribution, but that’s all changing in real-time. So, what can we expect over the next several years when it is clear that we will not see costs coming down?If we can draw any parallels between the economic downturn of the 1973 OPEC oil embargo and today, respecting that the situations are different in many ways and consumption and demand are astronomically higher today than it was then, several specific outcomes become apparent. Expect businesses to have to scale back or shutter operations altogether. This means less output during a period of high demand. This means workers get laid off, prices increase, and the economic crisis worsens. This will happen through this year and next. The Fed will try and raise interest rates to counter inflation. At the time of recording this video, they just announced the largest single interest rate hike in 28 years. Additional rate hikes are inevitable because it’s one of the only control tools they have left. However, this won’t do much but slow down the speed at which money is lent. Fewer people will be buying land or property, especially since most are priced out of that market altogether. Inflation is already deeply entrenched in our economy. The lowest estimates put consumer prices up 8.6%, but that’s the rosiest of rosiest visions. The reality is that prices have gone up far past that.Next for our economy and most of the world economies is a recession. If we aren’t already there by definition, we will be soon. Fed officials recently projected the economy would grow just 1.7% this year, down from the 2.8% growth rate they predicted three months ago. By 2023 expect the economy to contract even further. There is no soft landing anymore in the forecast. Imagine that the economy is standing on its tippy-toes on a ledge. We are all just one natural disaster or conflict away from a much larger collapse at this point.A WARNING AND A PLANSo we have to tell you that no single policy or plan, no pundit or political party change, no increase in drilling or ramped up production is enough to dig our ways out of this one. When world leaders are coming out and acknowledging the possibilities of food and power shortages, there’s a problem far worse than that rounding the corner. So we cannot accurately tell what will be the catalyst to change our trajectory or how far in the future that change will come, but that doesn’t leave us entirely without a plan. In fact, it presents us with specific opportunities.Your plan should be to prep to protect yourself from the world’s failings. Knowing that supply chains will continue to falter, take steps to build food reserves and reduce your dependence on global food supply chains. Get local where you can and produce, process, and preserve at least some small percentage of what you need to consume. Knowing that the energy grid, which is already highly prone to failure, is going to get even more susceptible to prolonged outages, prep your energy needs, learn to do with less or no energy, and understand how this chaos will impact the world around you, your state, town, and neighborhood. Understand that to survive, you will need to fundamentally change your spending habits. Necessities and essentials have to take center stage in your budget. Before this is over, the recession will get worse. Before this is over, millions of jobs will be lost. Whole economies may implode. The high fuel cost coupled with food shortages is a formula with only one outcome.It is hard to fathom the more profound consequences of seven dollars or ten dollars a gallon gas. It’s challenging to comprehend the deeper, life-altering complications when we are in slack-jawed sticker shock at the pumps, but there are numerous side effects to that per-gallon price. We are in unchartered waters. Economies around the world will suffer, and some will collapse. Even investment gurus like Robert Kiyosaki, author of Rich Dad, Poor Dad, advised his 1.9 million Twitter followers to invest in cans of tuna fish and baked beans. He wrote, “Best investments are cans of tuna & baked beans. You can’t eat gold, silver, or Bitcoin. You can eat cans of tuna and baked beans. Food most important. Starvation next problem. Invest in the solution.” Even he is becoming a prepper. He is also a new prepper who would be making a mistake by limiting his prepping to hoarding cans of beans and fish. Don’t make his mistake, but work from a complete plan like what We outline in my Prepper’s Roadmap course. For your part, double down on your food and water preps, but realize the whole world is about to do the same. Take it a step further and reduce dependencies and start producing part of what you consume. Think beyond gas, wheat, corn, and electricity today, and prep a better tomorrow for yourself.We have grown accustomed and desensitized to rising fuel costs over the last 50 years, but trust me, this time, it’s different. We are driving into a storm here. Visibility is about to drop to zero, and the clouds show no signs of clearing up anytime soon. The prepping choices you make today will influence your path and where it leads you.As always, stay safe out there.
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